>>62120873
Isn't the best strategy to just scour people's profiles till you find an obvious insider trader and just copy whatever they do?
It is litterally the copy Pelosi strategy but in real time.

>>62120962
Can you share some inside trader profiles?

>>62121048
Hey man, Tyson is going to lose to Mayweather. You're welcome

>>62120873
Easy 14% if somebody wants big apy with little risk
https://polymarket.com/de/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027
Betting no on Fc Bayern winning Cbhampions League could be a good gamble.
https://polymarket.com/de/event/uefa-champions-league-winner

>>62120873
Unless you have insider knowledge, you aren't going to makeit with polymarket

>>62120873
scam alert

>>62120873
I saw the CEO for this on Fox Business and he looked and sounded really gay

>>62121120
You can if you find undervalued items to buy and sell them later at a bit higher price. I use this for scanning
[code]
function is_good(prices) {
if (len(prices) == 0) {
return false
}
let did_have3 = false
let did_have4 = false
let did_have3_second = false

let hi_price = maxn(prices, 10)
let lo_price = hi_price / 4 * 3

prices.each(price => {
if (price <= lo_price) {
if (did_have4) {
did_have3_second = true
} else {
did_have3 = true
}
}

if (price >= hi_price && did_have3) {
did_have4 = true
}
})
did_have3_second
}

function process(offset) {
events(100, offset).each(event => {
event.markets.each(market_info => {
try {
let market = get_market(market_info.slug)
let prices = price_history(market.Yes(), "1d").map(p => p.Price)
if (is_good(prices)) {
println(`Found good market: polymarket.com/market/${market_info.slug}`)
}
} catch(e) {
//println(e)
}
})
})
offset += 1
process(offset)
}

process(0)
[/code]

Was just about to make a thread. I have a Kalshi script I've been working on and it's actually profitable during my testing of buying/selling 1 contract over the course of a few days, but I'm really worried about buying and selling multiple contracts. I think that's the next biggest bottleneck. I started at $10.17, got up to $11.56 yesterday, and now I'm at $10.74. It's a slow process, but at least it's working.

>>62121374
I spent the last 2 days making a weather prediction model and it is just below the profitability line
(simulated on last 30 events with 1$ for each, got 10 wins and 28$)
The wins are pretty good on average. If I can somehow filter out the bad positions, maybe I can make it profitable.

>>62120873
'Nothing Ever Happens': This Bot Always Bets 'No' on Polymarket, And It Has a Point
Sterling Crispin's 'Nothing Ever Happens' bot automatically buys "No" on every non-sports Polymarket it finds. It's not that crazy.

lmao scammers

polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by-april-7-346

>>62121420
I trade on the 15 minute Bitcoin market, which is already full of bots. I can achieve a high win rate, but it's the losses that kill my profit. I'm buying at $0.50 just to sell at $0.75, but if it doesn't hit then I'm losing the majority of my money. Stop losses are difficult because the price of BTC can vary so much, so I set it to around 0.19 or 0.20 to retain at least a little money. I haven't tried other markets like weather, but I might start looking into sports since there's a lot of data available.

>>62121422
I would say 98% of the time my bot buys No, but I did have an occasional 'Yes' here and there.

>>62121521
Have you tried splitting the investments? Like investing 10% or 20% of the pool instead of all at once?

>>62121533
Right now I'm just buying 1 contract for testing, I want to run it for a month to see how it fares. If it does well I'll put in $100 and bet 20% at a time, and if that does well, then I'll move onto 1k.

I'm making an avg of $320 a day on this broken nigga. There is no part of the UI that isn't jeeted beyond belief. Surprised they even manage to show their logo graphic

>>62121727
>I'm making an avg of $320 a day on this broken nigga
how?

>>62121727
Also today the API sent fake order book prices for several hours. Some markets just say 404 if you try to visit the correct url in a browser. It's incredible. The worst coding of any online project in the history of the internet

>>62121732
My own bot. Makes a couple hundred bets each day when the conditions say I should expect positive EV. I am currently running 15 strategies, but some of them barely ever trigger

>>62121747
Why is everyone making a bot here

>>62121767
Because it feels good waking up to $1600 created out of nothing (my personal record for one night) that you can then send to your metamask and convert to hyperliquid for your make it stack

>>62121727
How much volume are you churning through for those returns? I have seen lots of profiles that must be using bots where they made like 30k in 6 months with a volume of a couple million dollars kek.

>>62122081
How do I even go about building a bot? Do I do weather? Or is bitcoin event easier? Or something else entirely.
I can't for the life of me get the weather model to work above 40%. Then again, I am doing a coastal city in Asia, maybe that is not the best idea since weather there is unstable

>>62120873
>>62121374
WTF there was already a thread: >>62119145
Started 14 hours before this one.

>>62122081
My first account that I ran the bot on for exactly one month has $498k volume

Second account that ran for 12 days has $334k volume

Current account has run for 2-3 days and has $39k volume

I don't believe airdrop is going to be worthwhile but we can hope

>I have seen lots of profiles that must be using bots where they made like 30k in 6 months with a volume of a couple million dollars kek.
For sure, 99.99%+ bots.

>>62122099
Python. Don't listen to people saying you need rust or c++ for speed because that's only really needed for market making. You shouldn't do anything related to market making unless very experienced and ready to put down a lot of money and time. Start with a simple script trying to execute one strategy only. Use AI to help you piece it together bit by bit. First obviously make sure your script can connect to the API, read book prices, and do take or maker orders. My very first script did one shitty strategy that got maybe 4 trades a day. When I confirmed it was profitable over time I just copypasted the entire script and adapted it for a different market. Then I got confident enough I could make decent money I made a proper multistrategy bot. Worked on it for 6-12 hours a day for a month

When you start reading about other people's strategies to get ideas for your own, you're going to find a lot of disinfo and AI slop. Bad actors want to profit off you by getting you to use compromised github scripts that steal your private keys, or just generating slop for the ad revenue.

Also, simple strategies are the real ones. People talking about strategies with 4-5+ technical signals are lying or bots generating slop that looks impressive to newbies. I'm pretty sure all of my strategies only use one or sometimes two signals in combination with very basics like used time / time left / scale of signal of current market

>>62122224
Where do I find these signals? is there any website where they are available?

>>62122232
It can be anything technical that you can evaluate in a script, like vwap (volume-weighted average price). I shouldn't have used the word signal because marketing scammers use it extensively online to sell their proprietary magic combo of technical indicators (their "signal" that they charge money for)

>>62121779
lmao newb thinking itll be consistent.

get the fuck out of here newfggt.

and also quit larping post proof or gtfo

File: third col is net.png (192 KB)

192 KB PNG

>>62122099
The simplest bot to try first would be the strategy where you try to buy 0.99-0.999 stakes on markets that are basically guaranteed. The two problems you will find: 1) there is a LOT of competition. 2) if you don't do it right the occasional loss will wipe out the profits, so be extremely conservative, even if you only catch half a dozen trades a day. You will learn a lot from this without losing too much

>>62122252
It's not the same amount every day?? That's terrible man. You owned me.

>62122280
>The simplest bot to try first would be the strategy where you try to buy 0.99-0.999 stakes on markets that are basically guaranteed. The two problems you will find: 1) there is a LOT of competition. 2) if you don't do it right the occasional loss will wipe out the profits, so be extremely conservative, even if you only catch half a dozen trades a day. You will learn a lot from this without losing too much
Also only bet a fraction of your account worth each time

>>62121422
There have been plenty of hilariously high multiple YES bets.

* will Biden drop out of the presidential race? YES
* will Biden pardon Hunter? YES
* will Biden pardon any more of his corrupt crime family? YES
* will Biden pardon Fauci? YES
* will Judge Hannah Dugin be charged for obstruction of a federal law enforcement officer? YES
* will Don Gaynigger Lemon be charged with a crime? YES

I wish to fuck I could get on Polymarket but those faggots strung me along for four months promising to open up to Americans, only to bait-and-switch to "you can download our iOS app, but only if you have an iPhone because Android luzers aren't worth our time, ha-ha-HA!" Fucking assholes, I hope their C-suite execs all get ass cancer.

File: moose.xwd.jpg (244.5 KB)

244.5 KB JPG

>>62120873
What OTHER "prediction markets" exist?

I know about AlphaArcade and Kalshi.

Betmoose just shut its doors two weeks ago. Anyone who joined it has until April 30th to get their funds off the platform.

>bet on stuff thats +90% odds
>dont even look at it
let me know how this works

>>62123103
>* will Biden pardon Fauci? YES
wtf?
biden pardoned fauci? for what?

>>62123305
if you lose just once, all your past wins dissapear

File: dr-nick-ee58a033cb4964810808676db15aced6-8374743-3425364.jpg (54.5 KB)

54.5 KB JPG

>>62123329
> On January 20, 2025, President Joe Biden issued a preemptive, unconditional pardon to Dr. Anthony Fauci covering any potential offenses related to his COVID-19 pandemic response work from 2014–2025.
EVERYTHING.

You do know that Fauci violated U.S. law by funding "gain of function research" in China, right?

You do know that Fauci lied to Congress about that during multiple hearings, right?

You do know that Fauci purged emails and other records to hide that he had done that, right?

You do know that Fauci was one of the """"scientists""""""" who pushed for shutdowns, social distancing, masking, and other measures (despite absolutely no evidence that they would help with anything, and indeed subsequent research proved that they didn't do shit as far as reducing disease spread) that disrupted the economy, right?

Fauci was part of the "swamp cabal" that completely fucked the economy, for the sole real purpose of discrediting Trump so that he would lose the 2020 election. He absolutely deserves prison time -- for the rest of his miserable fucking life -- for what he pushed on the American people.

>>62120873
Does anyone have a good method to get historical data? I tried to analyze high earning bettors but I can only get data about theor last 3100 trades (and that data is sketch because it shows them making bets after the market resolved). My current idea is to just have a bot that downloads data and maybe in a few months I will have enough data to actually analyze trader strategies from the source itself.

Also some question for anons: Polymarket seems to be profitable now but does it have any long term prospects? I can see hypercompetition or regulation putting an end to it, but it should have a few years until that.

>>62123507
>shutdowns, social distancing, masking, and other measures (despite absolutely no evidence that they would help with anything, and indeed subsequent research proved that they didn't do shit as far as reducing disease spread)
Don't live your life being obsessed with politics to the point you're spreading absolute nonsense, all to defend a politician who doesn't know you exist and wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire. It makes you look mentally weak and gullible.

>>62124008
Analyzing trades won't help you at all. There's nothing that their full history will provide that the 3100 doesn't. Depending on the market it's either inside trading or bots using logic you'll never figure out. It's best to develop your own strategies by trading manually and then trying to automate that strategy. Polymarket has already been regulated out of the US for most markets and is going strong. Kalshi is the biggest competitor as far as I know and it's also going strong, although some states are trying to ban them. The amount of liquidity both these services have is a huge plus for them, it's hard for people to move to another service if there's no one betting.