Dr Valentin Portmann, at the Inria Centre de recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France and who led the new research, said: “We found that the Amoc is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.”

Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result. It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.”

He added: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.”

Rahmstorf, who has studied the Amoc for 35 years, has said a collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. “I argued this when we thought the chance of an Amoc shutdown was maybe 5%, and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50%. The most dramatic and drastic climate changes we see in the last 100,000 years of Earth history have been when the Amoc switched to a different state.”

The Amoc is slowing because air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of global heating. That means the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking and forming an Amoc feedback loop.

The Amoc system is highly complex and subject to random natural variations, making precise predictions impossible. However, a major weakening is now expected by scientists and that alone could have serious impacts in the decades to come.

The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, explored four different ways of using real-world observations to assess the models. They found a method called ridge regression, which had been little used in climate science before now, provided the best results.

The Amoc is difficult to model because it is governed by subtle differences in water density caused by salinity changes over the entire Atlantic. The reduction in uncertainty in the new analysis results from identifying the models that better reflect surface salinity in the south Atlantic, which scientists already knew was important. This makes the work “very credible”, said Rahmstorf.

Rahmstorf said Amoc slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment. This is because the computer models do not include the meltwater from the Greenland ice cap that is also freshening the ocean waters: “That is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse.”

So, warmer temperatures will make the thing that makes the temperatures warmer not be as effective at making the temperatures warmer. The earth fixes itself

>>1506558
Yeah except the problem is this results in mass famine in several parts of the world, potentially resulting in a massive immigration crisis.

>>1506553
Al Gore was right even if he was off by a few decades.

>>1506569
That's what rightoids want though.

Don't care. Nothing will happen. Anthropogenic climate change is a hoax. None of the banks or insurance companies believe this garbage either

>>1506583
Facts don't care about your feelings, sweetums

>>1506569
Maybe some things like fertiliser and greenhouses and people growing their own vegetables and keeping chickens and a few other ideas will alleviate some of this. Besides which, most famine is directly and indirectly caused by war, so stop starting so many wars and leave the farmers alone

>>1506583
Pollution is real though. Sometimes I think the climate change thing is just made up bullshit so people are distracted from the real issues, like UFO’s and all these scientists that keep going missing or dying

>>1506583
>Don't care. Nothing will happen.
This.
Except something will happen.
As this North Atlantic current breaks down, partly from Iceland's melting ice sheet flowing into it and disrupting it, Great Britain will not benefit from the warming this brings. As a consequence, as Northern and central Europe boils from the increased temperatures, Britain will remain cool

>>1506605
>Iceland
I think you mean Greenland. And to your point, Canada will become a lot warmer and more habitable, and better for growing crops.

>>1506625
Trump gets those mixed up too

Mass migrations have occurred throughout history. In every case, the poor become less well-off and the wealthy and powerful become better off than ever before.

If you live in a small town in a flyover state, your little shithole will be bought up by a comglomerate and you will be left with nothing. Have the day you voted for!

>>1506630
America exists because of mass migration. Not that it has much to do with this topic

>>1506553
A friendly reminder that all these political and economic shenanigans don’t actually matter in the face of the collapsing climate. We’re all fucked no matter what.

>>1506630
>>1506633
The Democrats are going to import a billion browns regardless of the climate.
>>1506651
Two more weeks

>>1506670
>the world isn’t a lifeless desert right now, so climate change isn’t real

On the one hand, many Europeans will become miserable and impoverished if not forced to move to browner countries as refugees.

On the other hand, everyone investing in the NW passage will get hosed, and we might get to see some fossil fuel executive lynchings.

It's a radical leftist's wet dream.

>>1506670
>The Democrats are going to import a billion browns regardless of the climate.
Good, have fun seething, whitey.

>>1506678
It's a religion. It's completely unfalsifiable.

>>1506765
But enough about capitalism

>>1506765
What?

>>1506768
Climate change is purportedly based on science, but it can't be proven wrong, so it isn't science. It's dogma.
Climatologists create predictions using climate models, but they are wrong all the time. They still assert that climate change is real in spite of this.

>>1506770
You have no idea what you’re talking about.

>>1506772
>it's global cooling
>wait, it's global warming! the ice caps are melting!
>wait, I know we were wrong, but it's CLIMATE CHANGE! yes, CLIMATE CHANGE!
Give it up, cakeboy

>>1506770
>please ignore the incredibly blatant changes to the environment that have happened within our lifetime
>There is no way anything humans do could ever effect the climate

>>1506779
Fucking China and India shitting out more pollution than the rest of the world combined ON TOP of data centers pumping out toxic waste people deserve to be poisoned

>>1506779
>everything we've predicted has been wrong but we still get lots of sweet government grant money, please believe us
>oh and we have a lot of money riding in the green energy sector, PLEASE PLEASE believe us

>>1506553
Meh. Earth's climate has been constantly changing even before humanity existed.
Even most of the other planets and a few of their moons go through climate change desipite not even having life.
We'll just adapt and move on.

>>1506785
>Guys they were totally wrong
>Please ignore the global effort to stop these things from happening that successfully did shit like heal the hole in the ozone layer
>See it didn't happen, ignore why

>>1506787
>We'll just adapt and move on.
You have fun adapting to a climate refugee crisis.

>>1506788
>hole in the ozone layer
Daily reminder that once the natural creation and destruction mechanism for ozone was discovered and linked to phenomena here in our atmosphere, we pretty much completely stopped hearing anything about the ozone layer any longer once the hole could no longer be pinned on humans

>>1506789
>You have fun adapting to a climate refugee crisis.
Wall. Build it. Problem solved.

>>1506599
You are stupid. The plants will be unable to grow where they ususally do. No grow means no food

>>1506819
Greenhouses and grow-lights.

>>1506799
>Daily reminder that once the natural creation and destruction mechanism for ozone was discovered and linked to phenomena here in our atmosphere
>Nah nah nothing we've ever done could ever affect the earth's natural cycles
You're the kind of person who keeps dumping shit into their trash without every emptying it.

>>1506801
>We'll just keep them out!
Ok so where do they go? Because they can't go back somewhere underwater.

>>1506845
>Nah nah nothing we've ever done could ever affect the earth's natural cycles
Prove it bro

>>1506553
at least the northwest passage will finally be useful

>>1506819
You should try speculative fiction, not for the ideas of others but to write about your own ideas and test them as theories.
My understanding is that food grows in belts, areas usually of the same latitude and altitude where the same crops will easily propagate for example there’s an apple belt in Europe. That apple belt will slowly move towards the north, so the idea would be to start planting apple trees past the current northern boundary of the current apple belt

The "But it's getting colder" crowd will absolutely love this.
>>1506787
>Meh. Earth's climate has been constantly changing
By how much and on what kind of timescale?

>>1506846
Anon you're arguing with a republican, they could not give less of a fuck if entire countries are wiped out as long as they get to yell at their TV and jerk themselves off about how hard they work.

>>1506852
>Guys just move all the farms north

>>1506848
Do you really think all the shit spewed into the atmosphere is going to do nothing?

>>1506904
No retard. It’s start growing things further north on the farms that are already there. And I suppose grow tropical fruits in the southern newly warmer regions. The farms don’t need to move just grow different produce to suit the new weather

>>1506906
>Guys just change your produce completely
>Don't ask what happens to the stuff those hypothetical northern farms were already growing

>>1506908
It’s not that big a deal you just plant different crops. Trees take longer but the climate change itself is gradual enough to easily adapt. There’ll be new farmland where it’s tundra now, so Russia and Canada will benefit greatly

>>1506911
>It’s not that big a deal you just plant different crops
Tell this to literally any farmer and they'll die laughing at you.

>Trees take longer but the climate change itself is gradual enough to easily adapt.
Literally the whole issue is that it in-fact not happening gradually enough and entire forests are dying.

>There’ll be new farmland where it’s tundra now, so Russia and Canada will benefit greatly
Yeah no. Also, assuming this does work how you think it will, what does this mean for, oh I don't know, all the countries that currently have farmland and won't after this? You think it'll be fine they just ask the guys up north to help supply all their food? Even if this works exactly how you seem to think it does, newsflash; borders exist and not everyone is willing to feed another country's population.

>>1506919
>forests are dying
>countries are losing farmland
any examples?

It really is that simple to change crops, you literally just plant different seeds.
Up north they’ll need farm workers in order to produce more food so yeah obviously people will move into those areas, which right now are sparsely populated. Those governments may even incentivise farmers and labourers to relocate onto the new farmland

>>1506928
>any examples?
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166276

>It really is that simple to change crops, you literally just plant different seeds.
oh my fucking god lmao you really believe this.

>>1506941
>not one dead forest
>not one country whose food security has become threatened by changes to the climate
no, I ask for examples not projections. I’ve been seeing projections for over 30yrs nothing has changed, famines are from war and lack of farming knowledge, and all the forests are still extant

>>1506944
>Who cares if all these trees are dying, we haven't lost a whole forest yet (precisely because people do in fact care these things are dying and are taking steps to specifically ensure they do not) so basically nothing is happening
You retards are literally like "Well climate change isn't real until entire swathes of the world are uninhabitable, at which point it will be far too late to do anything about it."

>>1506963
>the sky is falling! the sky is falling! give us all the money! the sky is falling!
>wow look at all these migrants as a result of """climate change""", I bet you feel really silly don't you?
You're a doomsday cult anon.

>>1506964
your posts always contain staggering levels of projection, esl shill

>>1506964
You know I'd love to see your explanation for how humanity's increasing carbon emissions will have absolutely no impact on anything ever. I'm sure it's very scientific, much like how the magical hole you have in your kitchen that you shove all your garbage into is bottomless how everything thrown into it just disappears.

You literally say "Oh nothing has happened" meanwhile global temperatures are rising at an unprecedent rate as climates are actively shifting before our eyes. You act like climate refugees are some liberal boogeyman but they literally already exist; Australia has to accept 200+ refugees from Tuvalu every year because the island is literally slowly being fucking eroded by rising sea levels. You shut your eyes, plug your ears, and insist everyone who points out a problem is wrong even as it rapidly becomes worse, simply because the efforts to prevent it are successful enough that the worse did not in-fact come to pass.

>>1506967
What’s the population of Tuvalu? It’s not that unusual for lands in the Pacific to sink, there’s at least two sunken continents there that we know of

>>1506967
>Australia has to accept 200+ refugees from Tuvalu every year because the island is literally slowly being fucking eroded by rising sea levels
You're talking about a country that imports muslim extremists that attack people, but instead of deporting them makes laws criminalizing antisemitism. That kind of libshit brainrot isn't the result of climate change.
>You literally say "Oh nothing has happened" meanwhile global temperatures are rising at an unprecedent rate as climates are actively shifting before our eyes.
I want you to come up with an explanation that is actually capable of meeting the requirements to be a scientific theory. Something falsifiable that can actually be proven wrong by the outcome of an experiment, not the modern-day equivalent of astrology.

>>1506972
Australia are right to take those people in as refugees. Their island is sinking into the sea, would you prefer they just watch them drown?

>>1506967
>simply because the efforts to prevent it are successful enough that the [worst] did not in-fact come to pass.
I hate that the worst thing you can do in politics is solve a problem before it gets bad because people will pretend it was never a problem to begin with. For instance, if you put up guardrails before the first accident occurs they will complain you're wasting money on something that will never happen. If you put them up right after the first accident then they say it's not that bad you're making a big deal over nothing. You have to wait until people are literally dying in bulk before they acknowledge that maybe safety is something we should spend money on, at which point they will also blame you for not dealing with the problem sooner.

>>1506972
>I want you to come up with an explanation that is actually capable of meeting the requirements to be a scientific theory.
What is your alternative? Because we have tons of proof in the form of rising global temperature extremes, CO2 levels, and the natural effects those would have on the climate. While you have... "eh it's probably fine."

Again, do you think that all the carbon emissions and other chemicals released in unpresented amounts by humanity within the last two centuries have no effect at all?

>>1506977
CO2 isn’t pollution

>>1506998
Correct! However, too much of ANYTHING is bad. Do you really think we can increase it the sheer amount that we have and it won't affect anything?

>>1506968
It is unusual for them to sink in the span of one or two human lifetimes. Zeelandia took millennia to sink.

>>1506998
>Sound isn't pollution.
>What?
>I said sound isn't pollution!
>What?!
>I! Said! Sound! Isn't! Pollution!
>I can't hear you over the new data center!

>>1506787
Yeah just adapt to THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT AIR CURRENT ON THE PLANET collapsing. That fucking thing is the only reason why Europe doesn't have a climate more akin to northern Canada.

>>1506998
Jesus you fucking people. Pollution is an artificially-created environmental factor that causes damage to the local conditions. Mass emissions of carbon dioxide contributes to extremely rapid climate change, which damages environmental conditions globally. Ergo, artificial CO2 emissions are pollution.

Wow that sounds pretty bad!
>2100
Who the fuck cares, not my problem