Showing all 164 replies.
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>>154910879
2 wins and 2 losses on the Saturday picks. Arnaldi's odds saved the day. Still have no idea why he was this much of an underdog against Collignon. Didn't bet on it but was also pretty wrong about Ruud. He was definitely much more tired. Somehow he made it past Paul but another long match was too much for him.
Monday picks:
Svajda to win a set against Cobolli @1.8
Arnaldi to beat Tiafoe @2
Parry to beat Chwalinska @2.4
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>>154958137
2 wins and a loss. Crazy comeback by Arnaldi in the fourth set. Definitely got lucky there. That should have been a 3-1 for Tiafoe. Svajda also managed to sneak in a set win near the end there. Parry was terrible.
Tuesday picks:
Zverev to beat Jodar @1.3
Mensik to beat Fonseca @2.75
Kostyuk to beat Svitolina @1.75
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>>154969155
3 out of 3 wins. Everything worked perfectly. Didn't expect Mensik to win 3-0, but Fonseca was obviously tired. Mensik himself is struggling physically after all this time on court so Zverev should be the obvious end of the road for him. Might be another 3-0, especially if the roof is opened. Which I think it will be based on the likely weather on Friday.
Wednesday picks:
Cobolli to win the first set against Auger-Aliassime @1.85
Berrettini to beat Arnaldi @1.5
Sabalenka to win 2-1 against Shnaider @4.4
Allowing myself a dumb correct score bet for once because I can't shake the impression that Shnaider will get a set, but on the other hand I don't really see Sabalenka losing either.
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Harold Mayot plays Semen Pankin in the Centurion 2 Challenger in about 15 minutes. Pankin is paying ~3.50 as an underdog despite narrowly winning this same match last week in the Centurion 1 Challenger. Worth a small play on the moneyline or the +4.5 games.
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Also tempted to back Elias Ymer around $2 against Chris O'Connell in Birmingham. Ymer is nothing special but O'Connell is on a nasty losing streak and coming into his first match on grass for the year. Big rain delays in Birmingham however, no idea when this match will actually take place.
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>Shnaider wins not just a set but the whole match 2-1
>Cobolli loses the first set but will likely end up winning the match
This is what happens when you have the right lean but try to get cute with extra bet options.
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>>154978478
2 losses and a push. Berrettini retired or it would have been 3 losses. What sucks is that could have easily been 2 wins if I just picked Cobolli to win and Shnaider to win a set instead of trying to be overly specific.
Thursday picks:
Kostyuk to beat Andreeva @1.7
Shnaider to beat Chwalinska @1.5
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>>154956384
see >>154982077
:^)
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How one goes about this first round of world cup games? Are we in for a lot of surprises? Bet on overs in goals? Expect a lot of semen slurpers? BTTS? Now that some 3rd placed teams can go through it should encourage teams to risk more to score
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>>154991409
Atrocious mug bets. Probably staying away from the remaining few RG matches. My score predictions for tomorrow are Zverev winning 3-0 against Mensik and Cobolli winning 3-1 against Arnaldi. But not going for anything. These are probably completely wrong.
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atlanta braves -1.5 @ 1.90
in his career, chris sale completely dominates the blue jays. 18.0 innings, 6 hits allowed, 1 ER, 29Ks in his last 3 starts against them. would even consider a small bet on chris sale pitcher hits allowed under 4.5 @ 2.05. guy is practically untouchable at truist park.
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UFC Belal vs Bonfim
Crappy bets last week, at least Angie +175 got it done. Good card for an Apex card this weekend
>Souza -310 vs Carnelossi
Carnelossi is trash. Doesn’t do anything particularly well and she has shit cardio + a tendency to quit. If she doesn’t blitz Souza and finish her quick she’s going to lose 30-27. Good parlay piece.
>Chaves -400 vs Duben
Another parlay piece. Duben is terrible. Got a UFC shot based off a fluke contender series KO. Chaves is super durable and fun to watch. Chaves lands early and often and probably puts Duben away.
>Brito -185 vs Leavitt
I think Leavitt is better than people give him credit, but hate this matchup for him. To beat Brito he’ll need about 12 minutes of control time. Otherwise Brito will strike his head off. Brito by KO is worth a look too.
>Iwo by SUB +400 vs Tafa
Tafa is the worst grappler in the UFC. Worthless on the mat. Iwo has brawled his first couple UFC fights, i think he switches it up and uses the judo black belt to win this fight in Ronda Rousey fashion. GnP TKO is possible but not worth the price.
>Mitchell -140 vs Luna
Bryce is better than people realize. He has solid striking and a deadly ground game. Luna will be the better striker, but he’s very easily hit and will be overmatched if it hits the mat. This is too much, too soon for Luna. Bryce wins easy
>Costa-Schnell u1.5 rounds -165
Schnell has zero chin and horrible submission defense. Seems crazy to lay chalk on a flyweight fight under 1.5, but it’s the right play here. I’d be surprised if this gets out of the first round.
1/2
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>>155011068
>Ziam wins ITD +130 vs Nolan
Ziam can be frustrating, he loves to cage clinch and burn time. He’s shown solid finishing instincts his last several fights though. Nolan is easily hit and I’m not convinced of his durability. Ziam finds a knee or a flurry to put him away. I think Ziam is better everywhere.
>Edmen +170 vs Allen
This is one of those fights where everyone is taking Allen, yet the odds arent that wide. Smells fishy to me, I’ll back the more dangerous striker. Allen’s striking isn’t that good but he has a major advantage grappling. I could see Edmen hurting him and finding the GnP finish
>Bonfim +100 vs Belal
Another fight where a large percentage of the market is on Belal but the odds imply a coin flip. In recent years we’ve seen champs, especially aging champs, lose the belt and struggle to win. Usman, Izzy, Leon, even JDM. I think Belal is in the same boat and he’s the weakest out of those fighters. He’s almost 38, one dimensional, and presents very little finishing danger. I think Bonfim fucks him up on the feet. Belal isn’t the wrestler he used to be, don’t see him getting many takedowns.
2/2
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>>155011146
>>155011262
>picking the cardiolet flashy striker over the elite wrestler
yall don’t know ball
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