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It’s shocking to see how violently Bitcoin broke below this level. This move confirms the bearish flag I’ve been highlighting repeatedly over the past 2–6 weeks. I’m confident BTC will also close the coming week below the weekly MA100 and enter another consolidation phase before continuing lower toward my 70k target.
That said, 70k is not the bottom. Months ago, when BTC was trading around 115–125k, I projected a cycle bottom in the 50–60k range, a view that has so far proven accurate. After updating my models, however, I now see even lower prices.
My current data points to a true bottom zone between 54–44k, which is extreme given today’s sentiment and price levels.
BTC has also dropped below MicroStrategy’s average entry price of roughly $76k, a development likely to intensify fear and panic. I publicly warned Michael Saylor to take profits, but he refused, despite much of MSTR’s BTC being acquired with leverage and backed by a declining stock used as collateral. With BTC now below their average cost, stabilizing MSTR becomes significantly harder.
Since 2020, their BTC position is effectively flat on a full P&L basis, underperforming ETFs and even cash yields, with no realized profits to offset risk. Expect fear and FUD to continue rising.
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Looks like a bear market for all of 2026, with a possible recovery starting sometime between September 2027 and 2028, potentially sending Bitcoin toward the 150k–200k range. An altcoin season could follow between January and June 2028.
So is it time to start DCAing? Into the right altcoins, into Bitcoin, or into other investments that could perform well while Bitcoin stays quiet through 2026?
Or could Bitcoin recover earlier, making these projections wrong? And this doesn’t even factor in a black swan event. We had one at the end of 2019 and early 2020, and Bitcoin still went on to hit a new all-time high in 2021.
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BTC will likely reach around $150k to $200k toward the end of 2027 or in 2028 following the 2028 BTC halving. For now, it’s a bear market, so it’s time to DCA when BTC hits bottom or find the right altcoin project for the 2028 bull run. It’s only two years.
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>>61767957
are you retarded ? The market will sell STRC, saylor will sell more stock to keep STRC pegged, eventually giving up, all the while common stock will be diluted to infinity. If he sells btc it will further decline the price. Kek Baggies.
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>>61767912
It's been fascinating to watch the real-time liquidation data. As BTC and ETH shudder between (reasonably) tight ranges, the liquidations keeping piling up. Long, short, doesn't matter, just a lot of people leveraging to the max and guessing wrong on what it will do in the next five minutes.
https://www.coinglass.com/liquidations
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The beginning of the end of Tulip mania is here.
I hope you all got out at the tippy top like I did, if not get out now. There will be a rebound phase but it wont last and it wont soar anywhere near close to the heights it already reached. GG GL to you all.
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>>61767912
A lot of big money being wiped out.
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>>61769673
Nah, Bitcoin will be around $150k to $200k in 2028, unless we’re in a full-blown World War III by then, but even if we are, it could still be higher, since we had a global COVID pandemic in 2020 and Bitcoin reached an all-time high in 2021.
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>>61767912
>I publicly warned Michael Saylor to take profits
you do realize this is completely impossible for him right
the money gained on selling some will be more than offset on the repricing lower of his remaining stack on the panic selling that follows
he is all in, his stack only goes up gradually or it gets liquidated fully no inbetweens
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>>61774210
I am worried about the liquidation potential which could cause a huge cascading & devastating bear market. Maybe one from which we'd never recovery, especially as gold has seen ATHs recently.
On the other hand, he has so much BTC that he could sell in a strategic way to actually gain money (short with leverage then dump) and buy back, saving his BTC totally. Repeat as needed.
However
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>>61775533
his liq price is at 20 ish k
if btc drops that low right now it was already over before hitting saylors point
and absolutely no, if that hits and btc drops to 1000 usd that the biggest buy point in history
the tech is still the same it was the day before and it will always be just 21 mil coins with at this stage negligible inflation
this truly is the first hard capped scarce asset in history people still dont understand its implication even now almost 17 years post inception
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>>61767912
>I publicly warned Michael Saylor to take profits,
Who are you? LOl.
But anyway Saylor's little stunt back in november when he bragged about openly shorting MSTR to buy BTC cost me about 4000 dollars so I hope he goes to prison. What a faggot. That kike Andrew left too.
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>>61767912
>It’s shocking to see how violently Bitcoin broke below this level
no it's not.
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I'm thinking we may be witnessing the end of crapto as we know it.
The falling knife when MSTR goes bust won't just signal another gruesome bearish low. It will be a stark reminder of crypto's insane risks, except now there are no more big god candle bull markets to look forward to.
This latest joke of a bull cycle where it barely doubled in value from the last ATH is as good as it gets. Next "bull run" will be weaker still, Ethereum will tread mud for years, and the alcoins will evaporate because they do nothing.
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>>61778088
My model is based on previous averages and is subject to change. It's just an estimation.
The price targets and dates could be wrong, I will adjust the model accordingly, but so far it's pretty solid. I just DCA anyway.
Having said that, if recent history is anything to go by, 1 million is closer than you might expect. 80% of all dollars were printed in the last 6 years.
:)
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>>61767912
>I publicly warned Michael Saylor to take profits
this made me reply lmao
I haven't posted on 4channel in months
nigger who the fuck do you think you are?
If you're someone who invests in Bitcoin for the long term, go away
otherwise, get to work on the protocol
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>>61767939
I sometimes feel sorry for the crypto guys because some of them truly believe it's money and they're just one brain cell away from figuring out that they've been conned into crypto by being sold the features of gold and silver but thinking that it can be digitised. I say I almost feel sorry for them because over time it should have become obvious that crypto can never be money. It's just a Ponzi scheme.
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>>61778225
>> them truly believe it's money
c'com newretardedfagkike, of course you can't buy car with shitcoin or metal, don't play dumb
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>>61767912
> confirms the bearish flag
Flags don’t last more than 3 weeks. It’s the #1 rule
That is a rectangle that reached its target if you will project one
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>>61767952
>100% of charting and finance is astrology.
FTFY
There is probably absolutely no info to be gained from charts to predict the future development of the chart.
You need massive context to make any sense of it and at that point chart analysis no better than using a dowsing rod.
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