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>>61782376
Not sure what happened to my reply, but there was a $20,000,000 scam on Polymarket that just crossed an hour ago. According to the whales that naught a shit ton of Yes shares at rock bottom prices and then voted after several disputes, the US invaded Mexico before January 31st.

There’s been some questionable stuff on Polymarket before but this was just blatant fraud. The platform is trying to gain legitimacy so they can return to the US but allowing manipulation like this isn’t helping.

>>61782376
>bros I want to get scammed come on tell me how to get scammed
Just wire me all that money you would want to spend on that, imma honestly try to 2x it. That would be a wiser financial decision.

>>61784554
Manipulating outcomes for the sake of gambling is perfectly fine in the US, you just gotta be in with the right people. Look at how shit like the NFL handles the spread (refs suddenly start calling a tight game if it looks like the spread will be beaten, or the opposite)

>>61784587
>manipilating outcomes
That’s not what happened. The outcome exists. They just voted in a different reality.

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Because it's banned in the USA and I'm just trying to get a sandwich

>>61784566
What are you even doing here if you're not into making shit ton of money effortlessly and in minimum amount of time possible?

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>>61785206
>What are you even doing here if you're not into losing a shit ton of money effortlessly and in minimum amount of time possible?
ftfy

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>>61785213

>>61782376
Alt coin and penny stock traders wouldn't be caught dead engaging in "sports betting". That's too degenerate even for them.
And in a way, they're right. Prediction markets are big gays.

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>>61782376
Buddy you're late. It's dominated by bots now.

>>61785271
No, it’s dominated by whales.

Retards bump the shit out of easily predictable markets. There’s a 0% chance of the US invading fucking Mexico, yet it was selling at like 20% yes for a while. Attacking Iran was around 44% no; people think it’s more likely than not, which is pants-on-head stupid.

You don’t even need to wait for the position to resolve (probably shouldn’t, to help avoid a situation where whales manipulate the market and outcome). Just buy Yes on an Iran strike, wait for the falls to fall apart and fuckton of Sabre rattling by the Jews, and sell after your shares appreciate. Or just buy no in the long term and wait it out.

It looks fun but it's banned in the first world so I'm kinda SoL

>>61785336
there was something about human biases and overestimating likelihoods of events....anyway, by far most markets resolve to no. in 2025, if you had bet no on everything, you would be very rich. thats probably 'fixed' now (by bots or algos o algo)

>>61785374
but sriously it was like >70% went to no, pareto like

I remember when Mark Carney won the Canadian election and the people on polymarket absolutely fucking seethed. It's all a scam though

>>61785417
>”will Trump talk to Putin before Hanuary 31st, 2925?@
>Sure enough, Trump calls him
>hour and a half conversation
>first US official to speak with Putin since the start of the Ukraine war
>highly publicized, all over the news, no one denies it, etc.
>market resolved to yes
>disputed
>reviwed: still No
>disputed again
>reviewed again: still no
>disputed a fucking third time
>goes to UMA vote
>large token holders who probably bought large shares of No vote that no, Trump did not speak with Putin
That’s how the big scams operate. This was a $7 million market. The latest Cartel operations scam mentioned above ended up being around $30 million.

These are exceptions, but they’re pretty glaring examples of Polymarkets vulnerability. The company’s unwillingness to rectify this problem is exactly why Kalshi exists (and probably why Polymarket remains unregulated and banned in the US).

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>>61782376
Prediction game is rigged. Seventy percent of traders lost money to the insiders.

>>61782376
Prediction markets are just legalized insider trading.

If you don't have an edge in that sense it's just gambling. No different than sports betting, and we don't talk about that either

>>61786830
>>61786829
Yeah, I needed to hear this. It doesn't feel like shitcoin shenanigans at all. I looked at Polymarket and Kalshi a bit, but I just don't "feel" anything. It's not like seeing shit like HPOS on /biz/ day one and just knowing it was a sure thing. There's no sovl to prediction markets, and it's mostly gay politics shit. Hard pass.

k there's less money in polymarket than there is in shitcoins and there's literally 0 barrier to entry. also, betting is closer to literal gambling than any form of trading.

>>61786830
Is that different than the stock market?