Thread #62117391
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Jeb is a Mess edition
>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
>Financial TV Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/
>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
>Screeners: so you feel like in the movies
https://finviz.com/
https://etfdb.com/
>Gambling:
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices
>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/
>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits
>Boomer Investing 101: so zoomers with meme stocks can outperform you
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings
>Misc smg:
https://www.financialjuice.com/home
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates
>NEW THREAD: Copy-paste the following when making a new thread:
https://pastebin.com/GfB48W5G
Previous smigger thread
>>/thread/62116546
394 RepliesView Thread
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The cause of this war is South Korea.
South Korea is famous for Samsung and K-pop.
Because South Korea smuggled strategic materials into Iran, Iran was able to acquire weapons of mass destruction, including biological weapons.
South Korean Firms Violate International Controls on Shipping Materials for WMDs to Iran and Syria
https://japan-forward.com/south-korean-firms-violate-international-con trols-on-shipping-materials-for-wmd s-to-iran-and-syria/
S. Korea should clearly explain fire-control radar incident
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181228/p2a/00m/0na/017000c
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>>62117406
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The cause of this war is South Korea.
South Korea is famous for Samsung and K-pop.
Because South Korea smuggled strategic materials into Iran, Iran was able to acquire weapons of mass destruction, including biological weapons.
South Korean Firms Violate International Controls on Shipping Materials for WMDs to Iran and Syria
https://japan-forward.com/south-korean-firms-violate-international-con trols-on-shipping-materials-for-wmd s-to-iran-and-syria/
S. Korea should clearly explain fire-control radar incident
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181228/p2a/00m/0na/017000c
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>they didn't watch
>they didn't learn
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>>62117465
>>62117459
North Korean shills in here
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Howdy smiggers, what did I miss?
Did they get that gat dang Persian strait open?
And yay! They fixed captchas, today will be a great day :3
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Godbless everyone and your poorfolios
WAGMI
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the US is now exporting more OIL than it has ever exported before, USA USA
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Tesla makes no fucking sense. Niggas are talking about cyclical memory stocks with a forward p/e of 3.5 like they are a major risk, granted, they are, because this time might not be different. Yet there's a whole class of investors that will long tesler purely on Musk promises (lies). The same CEO is basically a state welfare queen with all of his companies but also ran a government agency to cut foodstamps for the poorest of America.
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Its going to double-top 7000 and crash down to 6100, and oil goes to 130 or something on some very in-your-face bad news by orange nigger like israel sinking a u.s warship again and blaming it on iran or something.
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>>62117683
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>>62117634
Still can't fill in the gap if missing oil barrels though even though it increased slightly lol
you cant just magically make more oil storage facilities and ports. Takes 3 years at best , 7 years for a realistic timeline of construction.
short term gains for the USA, this kicks the can down the road for maybe a month or two, and long term everybody is still fucked
not even an oil fag btw, im more into miners and boomer rocks, when oil inflate prices on everything to hell, boomer rocks are the first to recover and win in the end.
Look at copper right now, its mooning because the chemicals required from nat gas and oil are not coming, so pure copper is more valuable, silver is a by product of copper. So Silver, and gold will have its all time highs again by end of the year.
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>>62117729
babe, my world history course was a vietnam vet telling war stories and playing "we didn't start the fire," and that was considered a good education because my brother went to a different school and they just watched rocky IV, the one where he fights the russian guy.
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>>62117756
I remember me and a bunch of my friends trying to sing we didn't start the fire while we were all drunk standing around my friend's computer with the youtube lyric video playing boss.
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>>62117753
>>62117756
>playing "we didn't start the fire,"
is this really how they brainwash you, mutts? JFC
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>finally get job after being unemployed
>try to save 90% of salary
>get a second job
>make good trades, try not to take massive risks like 50k into something that could go to 500k or crash, make like 30k~
>government rapes me on taxes
>only 75% of saved money left after food and rent and taxes
Ah I see, I get it now. I shoulda done the riskiest to rewardest trades possible like gold miners and ram letfs. Because anything less than absolute total victory is a total defeat anyway.
How are normalfags managing to be alive. Like how do they put mony into their fucking 401ks and spend 4000 bucks a month on credit and eating out in this economy. I know the "less than 50% have 1k" but I thought that was just money in their bank account.
Chilling to think, with my low 6 figure net worth, I'm somehow top 90% for my age group.
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Only QUAD SEVENS will save this market and allow us to breach the 7,000 resistance.
LEND ME YOUR POWER SMIGGERS
NEW ALL TIME HIGHS COMING
TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST
ONLY TOUGH SMIGGERS LAST
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>>62117756
>>62117753
>tfw you were too young to miss out on this and were instead just given the "whites are bad" and "the JFK assassination was an inside job" spiel
It's over
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>>62117771
You need to climb the ladder and get more raises, it's the only way.
I used to make "ok" money for my age and saved very little, but then I got raises and my spending did not increase as much, now I save and invest almost 50%.
I've decided that if I get another raise I will not save and invest any more, instead if I will get a mortgage.
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>>62117777
checked based
>>62117779
not even close, if my calls get fucked because some stupid fucking jam boy failed to roll quad sevens I am going to fucking lose my shit boss.
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>>62117779
>>62117789
G_D DAMN FUCKING JAM BOY!!!! MY CALLS ARE DOWN 50% YOU FUCKING ASS CLOWN!
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>>62118018
https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/jd-vance-wants-to-turn-poor-people
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>>62117799
dino oil is going the way of whale oil now that the hormussy is double stuffed so tight not a drop of seamen can squeeze through. The world runs on SOXL now
>>62117898
the houthis could shut it down as they have done before they're just terrified of getting smacked by a real military
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>>62118197
Nah it's kind of the worst case for bulls. Better if it consolidated today and ripped through the call wall tomorrow when it was stronger. Then you'd melt up as the hedge buying piles up.
Instead it's got no legs.
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WHY DID SNDK GO DOWN TODAY
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>Iran war isn't over
>No formal agreement between USA, Israel, and Iran
>Iran is blockaded
>Company earnings are not good
>Economy is not good
>Jobs are not good
>Stock market hits new all time high
>Market is run by niggers and jews
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>>62118027
You act like it's the mysterious powers of "the universe" doing this, but really it's your own government doing it to financially oppress you. They're inflating away your earning power to subsidize the easy lifestyle of the (((ruling class))) who own all of the stocks. Go deal in the real world.
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what the FUCK is up with 4chan, why is posting still so fucked? are they actually fixing this?
Fucking spastics
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SPY ABOUT TO HIT 700! UP AND TO THE RIGHT
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>>62118231
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>>62118236
ye I was kept from a couple of very important posts
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>>62115478
link to the tweet next time:
https://x.com/InsiderWire/status/2044069258448253326
>but thats from a bunch of threads ago.
I don't care. This site has been shitting itself preventing me from posting it sooner.
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>>62118263
Posting is completely fucked, I think it has something to do with 4chan being removed from some country's internet for being a platform for hate speech and other degenerate shit like gambling on the index or tranny porn boss.
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i knew /smg/ being in mostly cash when polled 2 weeks ago was the bottom
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SPY 700 GET FUCKED BOBO GET REKT GET COMPLETELY FUCKED. MARKETS GO UP AND TO THE RIGHT. THANKS TO THE OTHER NIGGA THAT POINTED ME HERE. I SEARCHED /SMG/ WITH BOTH SLASHES IN THE CATALOG. WELL DONE IT WORKED ON ME.
ANYWAY GET FUCKED AND BIG UPS TO ALL MY MILLIONAIRES WHO GOT RICH BUYING 0DTE CALLS AT OPEN UNDERSTANDING THAT MARKETS GO UP AND TO THE RIGHT AND DONALD PUMP BLESSES US
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>>62118277
A good leader must be unpredictable. Everyone should be confused wondering what the fuck you're even doing, with no idea what you're going to do next. You may not like it but that's peak performance
t. Prof Jiang
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I'm not wrong.
The market is wrong.
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>>62118277
>Want to make money
>Make decisions that lead to me losing money
>I'm not wrong
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ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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SPY 700 RETARDS. I TOLD YOU IT WAS COMING TODAY.
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Continuing to financially rape the general population of the United States like this is going to end in pitchforks. They're destroying everyone's lives with inflation to inflate assets held by (((wealthy and powerful individuals))). People can't even afford to reproduce anymore, but the government and Fed keeps printing money to inflate the stock market. This is robbery.
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this site is a simulation that runs on your device. fix your device. nothing is real. it's not the Jews it's the illuminati. they use divisiveness as a tool of manipulation. the stock market isn't real. it's just some guy who lives on your street running a local simulation from their home PC. be nice to him.
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Sell.
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Y'all might be celebrating SPY 700 but my minors are still down 29% since the start of Epstein Fury.
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>>62118338
Look at the CPI nowcasts. Inflation is currently over 5% annualized because of the global fuel crisis, and the government's response is to print even more money during a supply crisis. They should be hiking rates, but they will never do that because they would rather impoverish an entire country than cut off the stock market welfarebux for the (((ruling class))).
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>>62118352
Yeah >>62118204
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It’s been a glorious day for Mr Bobo and those who eagerly await his coming!
We have regional banks deep into private credit gapping down only to be pomped!
We have failing shoe companies going parabolic on AI vapor!
We have a SPY over 7k in the worst energy supply shock in history!
Can you see him yet /smg/!? Can you see Mr Bobo?! Do you have your party hats ready!?
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They're blatantly doing QE during an inflationary crisis because the (((ruling class))) isn't allowed to lose money on their stock market bubble, while sending the expendable goyim into poverty has no such restriction.
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>>62118369
unironically a good thing. back to the drawing board. you will come back stronger (and poorer)
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Might actually be bearish, look at end of january of NDX. This is when it started dumping. They buy calls as a hedge. But who knows.
>BREAKING: US call option volumes have surged to 47 million contracts per day, the 2nd-highest reading this year.
>Call volume has surged +75% since the beginning of the month.
>At the same time, put option volume has declined -15%, to 32 million contracts per day.
>Yesterday, the call option volume in the S&P 500 surpassed 3 million contracts for the first time in history.
>By comparison, fewer than 500,000 contracts traded for the index at the beginning of April.
>As a result, the CBOE total put/call ratio is down to 0.68, the lowest since the mid-May 2025 low.
>Risk appetite is surging at a record pace.
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>>62118378
I will document my recovery in the DING DING DING posts.
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>>62118383
THE MARKET RUNS ON OPTIONS. NOBODY IS GONNA SELL THE UNDERLYING STOCKS RETARD. ITS JUST UP AND TO THE RIGHT FOREVER NOW. THE TREASURY SHORTED OIL TO BUY SPY/QQQ CALLS ITS A PAIRS TRADE OF INSANE PROPORTIONS. ITS GONNA BE UGLY WHEN IT UNWINDS BUT HEY, SPY 700, WE ARE SO BACK NIGGAS
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>>62118334
Their greed is not going to end well for them, instead of very slowly boiling the frog in the pot they're cranking the oven up to 500 degrees. Living conditions are declining so fast that despondent violence against elites is exponentially increasing. A population that has no children and no job has nothing to lose
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>>62118352
Thanks for playing, retard
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Euphoria like this never ends well.
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Any bad news?
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DING DING DING DING DING
How did it go today?!?!
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>>62118417
>>62118418
ding ding twins I capitulated my bearish positions (except VIX calls) and I regained 20% of my recent losses. Hallelujah
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How did they fuck up the site this badly?
>>62118418
+1.09%, +8% on the week
Sold MUU yesterday and sold puts on SNDK today. Tune in Friday for the exciting conclusion to "will anon get assigned"
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>>62118418
>>62118417
-43% today, -97% YTD. I will be ryuk posting my way back to 100%.
My paper algo account is up 10% today.
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>JUST IN: Allbirds (BIRD) stock jumps over 400% after announcing shift from footwear to AI.
>Allbirds announced it is effectively exiting the footwear industry to become an AI compute infrastructure company.
>After a few rough years for the brand, Allbirds has decided to completely reinvent itself. The company plans to change its name to “NewBird AI”.
>Instead of selling wool runners, the company will focus on GPU-as-a-Service. They intend to use new funding to acquire high-performance GPUs (like those from Nvidia) to lease them to enterprises and AI developers facing compute shortages.
Ah, yes, the good old dotcom shit just like in the old days. And people will tell you the market is behaving fine.
What's next, Nike announcing they'll enter AI too?
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>>62118418
Up 4% for 12k today and finally back in the green YTD. A full 43k up this week alone. If the don can really make Iran bend the knee the market is going to go parabolic. Red tsunami for votes but not the market.
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What does this big last 1min candle mean
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>>62118436
Daddy? What happened?
>>62118437
They should. You know they could take up golf clubs again and copy what Callaway is doing with their Ai Smoke branded drivers *kisses you*
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Mr. Dicksy found support
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>>62118418
Good so far!
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>>62118440
>If the don can really make Iran bend the knee the market is going to go parabolic.
Why? It was already slumping pre war.
>>62118442
>Daddy? What happened?
I went too hard on shorts and got BTFO, then doubled down, rinsed and repeated during the most nonsensical and outlandlishly bullish rally I've ever seen. I will recover. Didn't cull winners when I should have and a lot of potential profit was turned into a loss by factually incorrect Truth social posts.
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>>62118418
Today: +1.61%
This Week: +5.69%
This Month: +13.98%
This Year: +3.22%
this is truly some insane shit
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>>62118418
+0.319%, some of my stocks soared and yet SanDisk, MU and RTX went down enough for my portfolio to crab lot
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>>62118418
+6.98%. I choose to believe that we'll all make it.
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>>62118409
It's not going to go down in AH
kek it just pumped
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>>62118495
You don't think the Iran peace deal is already priced in? Seems like market is pricing everything as if oil is flowing uninterrupted and running at full capacity already. Hard to imagine it'd pump much more from here since it seems to already be pricing that in. But I've been wrong all week and last week.
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>>62118418
1.51%
$67,821.33 CAD
Why is this place not celebrating 700 SPY! Fuck is wrong with you guys.
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>GRRR & GRRR Accessories
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>>62118418
+1% today
+17% since jan
My butthole is clenched until the TSM results come in. Biggest position in my portfolio by a lot.
>>62118486
Show your position then.
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At least when the original tariff taco happened last year there was some pullback after the market pumped like 10% in a day, started building again, took 2 months to get back to highs
What the actual FUCK is going on now? Back to all time highs in 2 weeks with zero give back? Was I supposed to just close my eyes and go balls deep to retardbuy believing in a literal meme about tacos on Tuesdays?
I don't catch falling knives, not even when they're falling upwards, there's always a pullback to position better, what the FUCK do you mean shit just keeps pumping and pumping on 80 fucking RSI???? Am I the mad one? Am I the one talking nonsense? Did I become a bear schizo without even knowing just because I don't fucking buy shit that goes up 20% in a week? I don't even get it anymore
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>Claude, give me some catchy taglines for Mountain Dew.
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This will keep going on forever
Right?
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>>62118498
see >>62118503
curious cuz I played the last two weeks absolutely wrong, my chakras are not aligned with the markets vibrations.
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>>62118533
zoom out
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>>62118539
Why are you pissing into a jug when you can piss in luxury disposable adult underwear? This is literally why I'm bullish on KMB.
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>>62118368
If you want to post with The Reddit spaces you should go to the spaces in The Reddit that let you post. Also for the record, I know the party is over at midnight, but none of the clocks have any hands, so I will be leaving this week, you should too boss.
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>>62118529
>Marzipan enhanced binary investment
Tastey.
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>>62118519
>What the actual FUCK is going on now?
This time there will bo no pullback. It will continue pumping when Trump's announcements about Iran surrendering actually are true. Then it will pump more when the world economy recovers from the high oil prices. Then, the new Fed chair will lower interest rates. Then, by the end of summer, Russia falls apart and the Ukraine conflict ends. Russia always falls apart at the end of summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VqiMQoMXmw
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>>62117391
What’s this pattern called Mr Mumu?
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>>62118519
Hedge funds are incredibly bullish this year based on both the Trump tax refunds and the supreme court pissing on tarrifs. On top of record deficits and corporate AI spending.
They did not want to sell their position when things looked iffy, so instead they bought record hedges.
Everyone, yourself, me, the hedges were eager as fuck to buy the dip. They had record hedges providing them cash to fuel it.
I kept saying Oil was at 72 in Nov so between fracking or geopolitics this was not real. The counter argument was NEETs telling me professional highly educated oil traders who think about this shit all day were stupid jews, becuase they didnt watch the YouTube videos they had about the comming collapse.
Thats when I went balls deep in tqqq.
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henlo mister jerome
thank u for fixing the website
i can post memes again
please lower the rates
thank u mister jerome
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Is the great captcha drought of 26 finally over?
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>>62118556
>On top of record deficits and corporate AI spending.
Record deficits? And aren't the tariffs coming back? AI spending is only good for providers, for business increasing spend on it, it's a gamble until we see ROI.
>They did not want to sell their position when things looked iffy, so instead they bought record hedges.
>Everyone, yourself, me, the hedges were eager as fuck to buy the dip. They had record hedges providing them cash to fuel it.
I agree it was already rally driven on low volume covering
>I kept saying Oil was at 72 in Nov so between fracking or geopolitics this was not real.
November? I don't follow. A lot of oil experts are sperging out over prices right now.
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test>>62118569
>>62118557
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>>62118549
Mr Baggot where will you go? The jungles of the Amazon rainforest to live with the un contacted tribes and eat bees?
I already told you EVERYONE is coming to the party! Even you boss! No matter where you go Mr Bobos Centennial Celebration will find you!
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Why I still gotta do these bullshit captchas
Am I on a list?
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>>62118572
Its not fixed liars
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>>62118417
made $210 trading too
>>62118555
bargaining but also having an episode.
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>>62118578
you're number one on my list babe
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BIRD put options now or wait until tomorrow? This turd cannot possibly stay this high right based on the a pivot that makes zero sense.
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test
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>>62118581
Test
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>>62118589
Me in the top right.
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>>62118591
>>62118581
Ok true
i wish this dogshit website would die already tho!
so will he announce some shit tomorrow? we wont bounce of ath for a 3rd time right?
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>>62118571
This is boring economics shit but big government deficits raise GDP, short term. Same with corporations buying AI infrastructure. Both increase the velocity of money and increase short term demand.
The tarrif risk is shrinking without the Supreme courts support which increases odds of consumers having more money.
Oil trades on the CME in Chicago. You could buy contracts for $50, really easy to use margin and leverage. The Nov prices were $73 at the peak.
Im sure there were traders saying oil is fucked, you will find outliers everywhere. The agreed market price was 73.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.qu otes.html
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>totally ignore all duties to control inflation
>instead print infinite money to inflate the stock market
>wtf, why is everything so expensive??
>why am I poor??
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>>62118418
1% for the day, 3% for the week, 7% for April, and half recovered what I lost by hodling in March.
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>>62118418
1.26 today
7.59 over the past week
It's going pretty incredible here. I know I probably can't do this consistently yet but seeing 3500 dollars in my portfolio over a single day yesterday gave me that feeling of wanting to quit my job. Stop losses triggered in today's pm, so I guess the profits are locked in, but I'm not averse to buying back in during tomorrow's premarket. Swinging TQQQ, holding mostly techshit long term.
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>>62118617
Yea... Burry has written about this in a non schizo way. This is a real issue, and worse the schizos have spent 2 decades making the dumbest arguments against the fed that nobody even wants to hear this stuff or have a conversation.
QAnon overlap was just to large.
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>>62118617
>rent is expected to average $4000 a month by 2050 if inflation continues over 3%
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>>62118584
yes it can. look at TSLA
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>>62118605
Unironically no one cares about GDP in the stock market though since so many companies are international. But anyway, deficit seems like it's been normal and inline with other nearby years?
>Oil trades on the CME in Chicago. You could buy contracts for $50, really easy to use margin and leverage. The Nov prices were $73 at the peak.
Why do you keep mentioning November though? That was pre-war.. The reason people are now all hype about oil prices is because of the war and strait closure (I know you have to know this, just not sure why November keeps getting mentioned).
>Im sure there were traders saying oil is fucked, you will find outliers everywhere. The agreed market price was 73.
Sure, but this is a weird argument since it would imply the market is perfectly efficient and rational. You could use this argument against any perceived mispricing. Eventually reality has to converge with futures, and right now the spread is about $50 wide. I think when this dislocation vanishes, the market is in for some pain.
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>>62118503
If Iran came to the table after chanting death to America for 50 years it's because they've already lost. The markets know this and they're pricing in a future world where global trade through Hormuz and Suez go uninterrupted because Iran isn't paying anybody to be a cunt.
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>>62118540
It's simple really. The trend of the market is up and to the right. America is a continuation of ancient magic from Egypt to Greece to Rome to Britain to America. They could'nt be more explicit than to put all of their hermetic symbolism on the money and buildings everywhere. I don't know about you but I'm not trying to bet against a 5000 year old wizard cult.
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>>62118644
Regardless, even just existing backlogs are enough to cause damage. Even if everything goes swimmingly from here on out and the strait is wide open forever from this day forward, there is 'muh irreversible damage done' but fr. Oil future prices have to converge with real physical prices at some point.
And your take is still speculative. Iran is willing to negotiate but doesn't seem willing to budge on nukes or sovereignty of the strait. I dont' think that's 'losing' and they've continually held up their leverage.
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tesT
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>>62118651
I'm not disagreeing with it long term, but a pullback is definitely still on the menu imo. I was just blindsided by the intensity of the rally while it ignored all bad news. Situation is worse than it was two weeks ago but we're at ATH.
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>>62118519
ultimately it's the 401ks. the big IPOs will mark the top, until then retardmode. flows in YTD are yuge even though it's obvious that the economy will start imploding sometime this year. work is already completely maxed out finished inventory. david_hunter.jpg
>>62118651
it's pretty crazy
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>>62118652
The entire market is speculative. These are speculative assets driven by past confirmed realities and the combined mental stability of the people with the most money to gamble. People wealthier and smarter than both of us think the market is over sold and are pumping hard. Things are moving around not just related to oil but also AI and general industry. Perfect storm of money making. Honestly the market has been shit since COVID and if we can stop having a once in a lifetime crisis every six months then we're well overdue for a correction upwards.
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The buffet index is getting spoopy
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I missed the boat...
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>>62118664
Priced in, the market is forward looking lmao
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>>62118659
Not right at this moment in time, obviously and I admitted as much. I see where we're at as a pretty fragile level unless the dump to $630 was a complete fakeout / shakeout. But oil flows being disrupted to this extent seems like it could exert a pretty real and unignorable force on the markets that's currently being 'forward-looked' right over like it wont' happen.
It is also OK to disagree with the market. In fact, any trade is expression of exactly that.
>>62118660
>The entire market is speculative.
Yes, that's my point.
>Honestly the market has been shit since COVID
?? What? It's been on an insane streak since COVID.
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>>62118642
Nov of this year. Its forward looking...
And yea, they could all be wrong with their MBA's, decades of trading experience, million dollar quants, and 50 hours a week talking to customers and suppliers.
They have been wrong before and will be again. I just wonder if you see the hubris in a Anon whos never taken a econ class or did not know what the CME is thinking that he is smarter than everyone else...
But fuck it man. Its easy to buy contracts. I do hope you buy a bunch, make a shit ton of money, and laugh/rub it in my smug face. I mean that.
What I dont want is more losers who cant check their ego at the door, cant make money, spout bad market moves, and than blame everyone but themselves and consol themselves with the delusion they will be right in 2 more weeks for the next decade.
Let's make money not lose it.
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>>62118666
>Devil trips
Bad omen.
Yeah it sucks to miss a big green day, but in 3 months time you will look at SPY 800 and wish you had swallowed your pride and bought today. I believe in you smiggie wiggie :3
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>>62118282
>90% of Chinese adults own a home
>of that 80% of them don't have a mortgage and don't owe any debt on it
>they just bought it and own it and don't have any monthly payments except utilities
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Why do SOXL chuds always win?
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>>62118676
>And yea, they could all be wrong with their MBA's, decades of trading experience, million dollar quants, and 50 hours a week talking to customers and suppliers.
I'm not sure what you're getting at, commodity markets are whacky all the time and there is a REAL, FACTUAL mispricing between physical oil and futures today. This isn't me 'thinking I'm smarter' than anyone, it's me pointing out the objective reality of the market today.
I'm not long oil though exactly because it so whacky and manipulated, but it's getting very tempting with dislocation needing to converge soon.
>What I dont want is more losers who cant check their ego at the door
Again, not what this is. I'm pointing out real price dislocations in the market that everyone is aware of that are not correcting for whatever reason. The market seems to be pricing in rather rapid resolution to the Hormuz issue that I just don't see actually taking place. But the price dislocation is an objective, observable fact not some ego driven thing.
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>>62118683
David is a close friend of mine and he talks well about SMG. He says even the bobo's are ok, they just need some SOXL and everything will turn out ok.
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>>62117391
Press F to all my niggaz who blew up their accounts this year and missed out on the literal exact week that the entire market recovered from the bottom to new ath. If any of you guys made a million dollars in the last three days when we won everything and everyone used AI to get unlimited growth maybe throw some people some poor bastard free crypto.
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>>62118692
>>62118700
that's my wife (male)
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>>62118282
I did. I hate them so much but I did. Lost 300k last time with 160 BABA but I was so bullish on robotics. It is not going well, fucking slant eyes!
UBTECH Robotics (9880.HK): 4,000 shares -17k loss
Geekplus (2590.HK): 40,000 shares -35k loss
RoboSense Tech (2498.HK): 14,000 shares 7k loss
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KEK
OIL
BAGGOTS
KEK XD
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>>62118676
Also, most of my opinion on the oil stuff comes from people who trade this commodity professionally. You seem to be implying professionals have a rationalization for the dislocations or something. It is the exact crowd of quants, MBAs, etc who are taking advantage of the spread here.
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EOG
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>Some people here bought oil at 110+ thinking it would go to 200
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little baby with large balls
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>>62118690
>But the price dislocation is an objective, observable fact not some ego driven thing.
Or you are wrong. The fact thats not on the table is why I said ego thing. You just said the markets are either manipulated or prices will shoot up. The idea they are accurately representative is not even on the table. You can not be wrong.
I just dont think thats a healthy mindset for making money.
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>>62118709
J-just wait, oil is about to fucking moon!!
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>>62118726
>Or you are wrong.
You must be misunderstanding me. I'm going off of real market prices. This is liek you trying to tell me I'm wrong about SPY's current price. This article is an example:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/oil-prices-futures-phy sical-3c0e0ca8
>You just said the markets are either manipulated or prices will shoot up.
I did not say that. But futures prices must converge with physical by expiration, yes. That what a futures contract is. Otherwise, there is risk-free profit (arbitrage) to be made. I'm not sure where we're misunderstanding each other.
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You're celebrating because the government is printing money into hot inflation to keep the stock market bubble inflated, but you're ignoring that the flow of middle eastern oil is still totally blocked off. Enjoy shortages I guess.
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>>62118738
What matters is the price of physical at expiration compared to the contract. If the spread narrows favorably, you'll profit. If you could short physical, you could presumably do a risk free arb.
Who is on the right side of the trade remains to be seen, but the markets are not perfectly efficient and this stuff happens. This is the widest gap seen in decades.
And again, I have no horse in this race.
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IT'S NOT GOING UP FAST ENOUGH WHAT THE FUCK NIGGER JEROME FIX IT
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>>62118749
If we're printing money where's my stimmy checks?
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>>62118738
What you're doing here again is acting like because there is an apparent inefficiency, the market must be right. I don't understand this mindset, because if you believe the markets are efficient, why participate?
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FUCKING
TRIPS
AND
WE
FUCKING
RIPS
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>>62118418
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>>62118637
kek it'll be $4k/month by 2040.
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> futures
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>>62118746
So buy a bunch and rub the profits in my face. I just think fracking will save the day but Im very much open to the fact Ill have missed a very good opportunity.
Im holding 600k of TQQQ currently so just know Im putting my money where my mouth is.
>>62118753
We cant short physical but traders can easily. I did it a lot back when I traded lumber.
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I am Smiggercles Baggotus, slayer of portfolios.
I will have my gains, in this life or the next.
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>>62118761
This is the rub of it. I do think in the fog of war the oil prices are efficient, and why Im not participating, though Im open to being wrong. Im inverting this exact question to all the market bears oil bulls. If you think its wrong why dont you have contracts or positions?
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>market is fake
>but the losses are real
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MY HOOD DOING A LOTTA SUMMIN
MHMM DAS RITE
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>>62118806
>So buy a bunch and rub the profits in my face.
I'm not super interested in the trade, because commodities are whacky and this is very manipulated, so I'm just watching it play out since it seems like everything happening there isn't being fully priced in. If the physical spot is forced to converge to meet, oil futures jump to ~$130 in the next few weeks. Will the broader market ignore that? SPY has some hot air below it if not, so I'm short SPY right now, but my face has been getting ripped off the last two weeks.
The only argument I can think against the spread converging to the upside is demand destruction, but I'd think that's also bearish. I've just been surprised this isn't being reflected in SPY's behavior at all during this rally.
>We cant short physical but traders can easily.
What do you mean?
>>62118823
>If you think its wrong why dont you have contracts or positions?
I'm short SPY, very unfortunately lol. I've been reluctant to take a position in oil because it's so manipulated and whacky. But every day that passes it gets more tempting because it's one day closer to the forced convergence of physical spot and futures, and the strait is STILL closed so it keeps the premium on physical. I'm considering taking a long but haven't yet.
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We will continue to print money to inflate the stock market until every last goy can only afford to live in a cardboard box.
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>>62118806
I'm not like some super oil bull either by the way, I haven't looked into it as much as it sounds like and if I were to long I'd want to hear some counter arguments and explanations for how this isn't a risk-free arb setup.
My point is more that it's just weird the situation as a whole, which is undoubtedly damaging and is ongoing, has flipped from being the central focus of SPY's price action, to completely ignored within two weeks, while the situation on the ground has only gotten worse. And that's kinda where I lost the plot this week and lost a lot of money.
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>>62118847
Never
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>>62118833
im not selling till $250+/share
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>>62118833
It could be anticipation of the upcoming pattern day trader rule change.
>>62117244
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>>62118860
I'm thinking the new prediction markets and their recent expansions could do it.
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>>62118866
I've been on a sabbatical from 4chan for a couple years
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>>62118837
>this is very manipulated
Where our disagreement is
>If the physical spot is forced to converge to meet, oil futures jump to ~$130 in the next few weeks. Will the broader market ignore that?
It could becuase it only impacts that month for that one day. Ive seen it in Lumber a lot where a month poorly priced has zero impact on the months that follow or the market. Pissed us off to no end.
>What do you mean?
People who trade for a living can sell contracts for delivery at below market prices, than when prices come off buy their supply to cover the sold contracts at a profit.
>I'm short SPY
There has to be whatever the reverse of a dead cat bounce is, but I'd watch out after. I get where you are comming from and you could be right but I live in oil country and its my understanding fracking can turn oil to $60 any time it wants.
What that means for fertilizer, gas, diesel, and jet fuel I dont know becuase of manufacturing and transportation constraints but their is no "oil" shortage.
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>>62118878
>Where our disagreement is
Where is the disagreement exactly?
>It could becuase it only impacts that month for that one day. Ive seen it in Lumber a lot where a month poorly priced has zero impact on the months that follow or the market. Pissed us off to no end.
Fair, good point. A little blip on the radar that fades immediately. But don't see that as the most likely outcome.
>People who trade for a living can sell contracts for delivery at below market prices, than when prices come off buy their supply to cover the sold contracts at a profit.
What exactly gives them special access to these instruments? Is this just because they have infra and contacts through their employer to handle delivery or something? Not sure what makes retail fundamentally unable to do it in other words. If I could, I'd rather go for the arbitrage on the spread here.
>its my understanding fracking can turn oil to $60 any time it wants.
That's another reason I haven't taken a position yet. This is the kind of 'manipulation' I was referring too, not anything super schizo. Technically any trade is 'manipulation' of the markets, I just wouldn't be suprised if the trade works out in favor institutions or governments, however they need it to go. I don't think the US has a lot of the right kind of oil but we do have Venezuela.. At any rate, it's a global market and this is putting upward pressure on price.
>there is no oil shortage
How can you say this? Physical price has clearly spike, and shortages are hitting Europe with closures and rationing taking place.
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>>62118895
They can short physical becuase they have customers who take physical. Thats all.
Again is there a oil shortage or gas, diesel, and jet fuel shortage. North Dakota has near unlimited $60 oil but that doesnt help the bus driver in Germany.
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Visit national parks edition
>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
>Financial TV Streams:
https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.html
https://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/
>Charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com
>Screeners: so you feel like in the movies
https://finviz.com/
https://etfdb.com/
>Gambling:
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices
>Pre-Market and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/
>Calendars
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits
>Boomer Investing 101: so zoomers with meme stocks can outperform you
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings
>Misc smg:
https://www.financialjuice.com/home
https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
https://market24hclock.com/
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
https://brokerchooser.com/
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-rates
>NEW THREAD: Copy-paste the following when making a new thread:
https://pastebin.com/GfB48W5G
>>
>>62118904
>North Dakota has near unlimited $60 oil
Why would they sell it for $60 when it's globally priced at $130 though?
Anyway, my shit got pushed in already so I was wrong about the SPY short, but still holding til EOM. Things were supposed to get interesting with oil supply mid April from what I heard but it seems like it was drowned out by the 'up and to the right' gang'. At least so far.
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The worst part is that, as a goy that is forced to deal in the real world, there's no way to hedge against losing my job from oil shortages as long as the market is rigged to only go straight up to protect jewish billionaire portfolios at the expense of literally everyone else. I guess I'll just become homeless.
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can recycle this shit thread i guess
>>62115292
>>62115292
>>62115292
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>>62118909
>>62118909
>Why would they sell it for $60 when it's globally priced at $130 though?
Exactly! They will sell it at $130 till they flood the market and it goes to... $75 in Nov.
Who knows though. And talking to you it hit me the refineries must just be killing it. Also in the past oil = gas but now we have a huge disconnect that the market might not be pricing. That or they know boots on the ground. Time will tell. Least one of us will make money.
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>>62118909
>>62118909
>Why would they sell it for $60 when it's globally priced at $130 though?
Exactly! They will sell it at $130 till they flood the market and it goes to... $75 in Nov.
Who knows though. And talking to you it hit me the refineries must just be killing it. Also in the past oil = gas but now we have a huge disconnect that the market might not be pricing. That or they know boots on the ground. Time will tell. Least one of us will make money.
>>62118929
I think fob chicago.
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>>62118935
ah damn I already had one baking fuck this lag
>>62118948
>>62118948
>>62118948
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>>62118938
>>62118936
>>62118938
>And talking to you it hit me the refineries must just be killing it.
I've been trying to find this kinda play that's hiding in plain sight that stands to benefit from more domestic processing or something... But idk shit.
>Exactly! They will sell it at $130 till they flood the market and it goes to... $75 in Nov.
But the same forces restricting supply are still in place, it should only bounce back to $75 if things are forecasted to be back to normal then right?I don't trade futures or commodities though so idk what that contract rollover really ends up looking like. Another reason I haven't touched it.
Anyway, good talk lmk if you find any refinery type adjacent plays you like.