I played Risk: Lord of the Rings a lot as a kid, which also had an optional ring journey and ability for Sauron to capture it, and in my experience it works out like your computer program

>>25065556
That's what makes it heroic you autistic retard.

>>25065556
Was the divine will of Erū Ilúvatar factored into your simulation?
Guessing not ...

>>25065605
Sauron didn't either.
>with Saruman taking over all the north of Middle-Earth
Kek, implying Sauron would let him.

Your mistake is trying to be rational in a world based on vibes

are men and orcs considered equally strong in the simulation?

>>25065605
No, it was not.

The will of Eru is basically someone rigging all the variables and re-rolling every turn of the simulation until the desired outcome happens.

>>25065609
Saruman gets the ring, takes over the Nazgul, takes over Dol Guldur.

Saruman never destroys Sauron (unless I let the simulation run for thousands of turns, where the entire Middle-Earth doesn't make sense anymore). Saruman takes the ring, takes over all the north.

If you read the books, you'll know Dol Guldur is ruled by a nazgul. And the nazgul are taken over by Saruman if Saruman takes the ring. So Saruman pretty much takes over all of Sauron's assets in the north.

Sauron is an underdog in his own war unless he gets the ring. If he gets the ring, it is over. Even if he does not get the ring, he still gets to take over Gondor.

>>25065616
Good question. I tested one man being worth 1.25 to 2.5 orcs. They are still defeated, in every scenario, and the only thing that changes is ten to twenty clicks more or less.

The problem is that men are just not replenishable, and going by the numbers of orcs that Sauron explicitly is known to have post Pelennor, that is already enough to conquer everything.

>>25065615
>>25065598
Maybe that is the point. That is what makes it worth writing, because the sequence of events required for Frodo (or even Gondor to survive) to succeed is so absurd that even in a generous model like mine, which cannot factor in the drama, Gollum, and all the issues they had in the travel of the fellowship, Frodo is still defeated.

https://github.com/mvmorin/queller-bot

This also made me reflect a bit on fantasy as a whole, and how 'overcoming the odds' makes stories worth writing. And also why Tolkien never wanted to write the fourth age, because it'd not be epic or as interesting.

>>25065621
Saruman has 10k soldiers. Fully mustered forces of Mordor would be 100k. Even if Saruman commanded Nazgul it wouldn't give him much (especially since the ring would not fully belong to Saruman unless he personally comes to Mordor and beats Sauron, and would just wait for the right moment to betray him).
>Sauron is an underdog in his own war unless he gets the ring.
The plot point is that Sauron is winning without the ring, if he was not Free People could just hide the ring and beat him.

>>25065586
Risk is a simulation too, just much simpler and smaller. You can run simulations too in videogames, if you want them to be more complicated.

But any "wargame" simulating the War of the Ring ultimately can work for this simulation. You just need to code in .py that runs the simulation, and get the bots and AI to actually play the game and decide upon the events that happen in the book.

>>25065556
Show your model

>>25065639
Interestingly, Saruman is always defeated by Sauron IF he tries to get a hot war with Mordor. But Saruman does not do it, he takes the ring for himself, inherits Dol Guldor, the nazgul and the Misty Mountains orcs, but he does not try to destroy Barad Dur and march into it. But Sauron himself is also not able to recover the ring.

So in the end, you have a cold war between north and South. I cannot simulate accurately anything if the Haradrim or Corsairs of Umbar or the Easterlings would change sides if Saruman had the ring because the book does not give data on that. But we can now for sure that the Misty Mountains goblins and Dol Goldur would turn to Saruman if he got the ring.

>>25065652
>So in the end, you have a cold war between north and South.
Tolkien wrote that this would have happened if he wrote the story according to the most probable result.
Still I think Sauron would come at the top in the end.

>>25065633
>Maybe
No. That is the point. That's why it's worth reading, because the odds are stacked against them. Nobody would give a fuck if it's apparent from the onset that there's a 98.7% chance of success according to your simulations. Nobody wants to read that. That's what makes the characters special, what makes them heroes. They stood against it anyway and they succeeded where virtually anyone else would have failed. Frodo doesn't even succeed in the books, he personally fails at the end of it all because that's how tough their situation is. You talk like it's some error in Tolkien's vision or the execution of his worldbuilding when it's the very engine of what makes the story great. You absolute, bumbling, mumbling, shoe gazing, spastic, autistic retard.

>I can suspend my disbelief over hobnits dragons and elves but it's the GEOPOLITICS that get me

Hehe, things like this are why I don't listen to anything anyone says

>>25065621
>>25065556
All stories are about unlikely/unique events and personalities, that's the whole point of them. To capture possible but low chance of success moments of a world/the world.

>>25065556
So long as the ring exists, Sauron will eventually out live and overtake everything.

>>25065621
>The will of Eru is basically someone rigging all the variables and re-rolling every turn of the simulation until the desired outcome happens.
This is most explicit when Gollum grabs the ring and trips into the volcano just like that.