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3 reasons the US is closer to a recession than GDP suggests 01/22/26(Thu)22:53:28 No.1480517
3 reasons the US is closer to a recession than GDP suggests 01/22/26(Thu)22:53:28 No.1480517
3 reasons the US is closer to a recession than GDP suggests Anonymous 01/22/26(Thu)22:53:28 No.1480517 [Reply]▶
File: TRUMPS RECESSION WEAKENING ECONOMY.png (586.3 KB)
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In his latest outlook for 2026, Zandi wrote that while the US economy is expanding, the growth is fragile. Zandi said there are several reasons to believe the likelihood of a recession is high.
The economy isn't growing fast enough:
The economy may look strong, but Zandi said that the numbers look misleading. Accounting for the six-week government shutdown, he estimates that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be 2%. That's short of the growth rate needed to employ everyone entering the labor force, and continued growth below potential will ultimately be a hindrance to further expansion.
The deteriorating labor market is a recession indicator:
Zandi has repeatedly flagged problems in the labor market as an indication of an oncoming downturn. For 2026, he is still deeply concerned about cracks in the labor market, as the economy isn't able to absorb new labor supply fast enough.
"That unemployment is definitively on the rise is evidence that the economy's 2% underlying growth rate is falling short of its potential rate of growth—the rate at which it needs to grow to employ all those entering the labor force," he noted.
Zandi added that hiring has fallen to levels historically in line with other economic downturn cycles, something that often precedes a recession.
Stock market risk remains high:
Zandi has cautioned against relying on the stock market as an economic scorecard, and has said the wealth effect of rising asset prices could be clouding the broader picture of consumer health.
"If the stock market is a bubble and it bursts, wiping out this wealth, consumer spending will suffer a significant blow, triggering a recession," he stated. "This is precisely what happened in the wake of the bursting Y2K bubble."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-reasons-the-us-is-closer-to- a-recession-than-gdp-suggests-accor ding-to-a-top-economist/ar-AA1UKkvv ?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
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Im loving boycotting American products. Buying more locally and have been saving money. Wife and I used to travel monthly to America for personal and business, havent been there in two years and wont be back till they end MAGA far right stupidity.
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>>1481429
I'm not seething, I'm enjoying every minute of this. Making fun of Americans is a national pass time in Canada and your orange tard of a president has put my country in a better position than it's been in decades. It's like The Onion became reality, I couldn't have asked for better entertainment.
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>>1480517
We're already in a recession. You don't need to look much further than needs-based metrics; too large a fraction of americans cannot weather a $500 emergency, and an even larger fraction need to decide between paying bills, rent, for food, or for medical expenses. The strain created by this is currently being absorbed by the credit industry, which is stretching thinner every day. They need to keep handing out dollars, or else commodity circulation will fail for like 80% of Americans. This would be a catastrophe.
The AI bubble is probably going to pop soon, but the real question is if that pop will also cause the credit industry to implode. If it doesn't, there will be a minor recession and things will get back to normal within a few years. If the credit industry does pop though, the US economy will grind to a halt, with a domino effect in the EU economies.
In the history of capitalism, cycles of recession and growth are common. The collapse of US credit would not be a mere recession though, it would be a coming to jesus moment as US production realizes just how much of its production exists outside of its borders and is no longer accessible since there is no longer any money flowing. Such a situation is unprecedented, the only thing coming close being the geopolitical situation leading to WWI and WWII.
This is what we have to look forward to with this collapse. It is not a situation we should seek to accelerate towards, but one we should seek to abolish the core conditions of.
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>>1481476
Yeah its going to suck much worse because the wealthy in the country literally don't care about everyone else and are proud to let them know. They've been hoarding up resources for decades now waiting for this.
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>>1481430
>till they end MAGA far right stupidity
They will never be gone and you'll never come back if you stick to those words. Even if Trump dies and his entire cabinet is forced to admit he was always retarded, right wingers won't admit they made a ~10 year mistake by supporting him, they'll quietly move onto another movement or public figure that blames all their problems on some external group while coming up with dumb impractical policies. It's what happened with Bush and his foreign wars.
t. American who hates miggers
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>>1483765
lol sure, that's what miggers said too when Trump got first elected, he couldn't do it on a mass scale to leftists and the little that he did solved almost nothing
I hate miggers, but the left have different types of retardation. Unless democrats come up with genuinely good ideas for change (good luck with that), government control is just going to go back and forth.