>>2858092
If you aren't confident in your gear or your survival skills then you cancel the trip.
You aren't bringing shelter and you aren't bringing enough food to keep yourself active, and sleeping bag companies always overestimate their capabilities by 10-20 degrees f.
If you improvise a shelter every night, have a steady fire, and hunt or increase supply stock to offset all the extra activity and cold calorie loss, you probably won't make your destination on time due to needing to stop early to scavenge for shelter and fuel.

You need a good tent to protect yourself from the cold and wind. You can sleep in a bivy but you do not have room to eat, change clothes, sort gear in a bivy.

OP gonna die.

That's hot tent territory. I think you should change your plans.

>>2858092
-15c is cold enough that equipment failure or simple errors can kill you. If you had cold camp experience, it would still be something to be cautious about. The AT is not a good place to find out that you were not actually prepared for cold camping, because evacuating yourself will be a chore, one you may physically be unable to do without risk of death or severe thermal injury, if you soak a boot, for instance.

I would advise bailing.

>>2858092
Do you sleep with your head out of the bivy sack? What is the precipitation forecast?

The gear list seems fine if you sleep in all your layers, but if anything gets wet you are MEGA fucked

>>2858445
Funny you ask, I actually decided to bail because of the precipitation, which is gonna be 16in of snow. I also got a couple of pieces since I posted this. But yeah I would try to vent the bivy to keep my breath from freezing on the inside.

>>2858092
You already cancelled but if you have a backyard or something that would be a good opportunity to test this. Concerns of mine just looking at raw numbers.

Bag is '-10F' limit. If that's the actual 'extreme rating' what that means based on the ISO standard is something like '6 hours with this bag at this temp won't kill you.' It does not mean comfort or even sleep. Even if the liner added 10F (generous) you are still in the 'probably won't get frostbite' territory. If the full ratings are available I would look at them, because the comfort rating is often 20-30F or more over the extreme. For example, Western Mountaineering has some bags who's extreme limit is listed at -40 but their comfortable sleep rating is like 10F, That's a wild swing.

You can definitely sleep colder than the bag with appropriate layering, but I would test that out. One if you cram too much shit into a bag you will start compressing the down and reducing the insulation. Two if you are like me you will find that the inability to move within the bag prevents a comfortable sleep. For this reason, my winter bag and quilt are oversized.

The rest of the layers look good with the exception of a heavy insulation layer. While active you can get away with less and the rain layer will help with wind and cold air, but the lack of a insulation layer for the arms and legs will really suck when moving less around camp unless you plan to cook from your sleeping bag.

Rain fly will really help with evaporative cooling but definitely pick a good campsite where wind and cold air won't collect.

I would be concerned at -22F that the pocket rocket won't work effectively. I would also 100% bring a way to start a fire as an emergency back up. And overall you should probably bring more food, cold saps strength and you body needs fuel constantly.

I feel like a shill because I recommend him a lot, but Aaron Linsdau's YT channel is a great resource and he 100% changed my approach to winter camping.

>>2858687
I tested it since I posted this. Turns out the bag's 10°F rating is actually the lower comfort limit, 0°F is the survival rating. I slept in ~7° with only base layers, and my feet got chilly around 5am so I put my socks back on as they were sweating around 25°.

As for the stove, I got a white gas stove, the MSR WhisperLite.