i dream of betting, winning 1 million and retiring to my goon cave and dying under the sheer weight of my gallons of semen as god intended. will my dream be broken or will they be given wings to fly......

Took a few months off but we’re almost back and I need some heems in my life.

UFC 324 Saturday 1/24

>Paddy ITD -125
Garth has horrendous BJJ. Paddy is bigger, stronger, and has vastly superior MMA grappling. Paddy will use a judo trip or just drag Garth down and maul him on the mat. I don’t think this fight is competitive. If you like the Gaethje side, consider Garth by decision +550. He’s not the reckless fighter he used to be and his power has always been overrated.

>Krylov +130 vs Bukauskas
Another big grappling disparity. Possible bukauskas heems krylov quick but I doubt it. I like krylov by sub or decision with tons of control time

>Waldo vs Lewis over 1.5
Waldo has mid power for a heavyweight. Lewis is slow and old. I don’t see Waldo rushing a finish here, nor do I see him getting sparked by old man Lewis. Waldo jabs and leg kicks and moves for a decision or a late finish in a boring fight.

>Allen vs Silva FDNGD +100
I don’t believe in Allen. He’s a good fighter all around but he’s not on Silva’s level. Silva batters him for half the fight then puts him away, or gets caught trying similar to how Lopes finished him.

>Miller -395 vs Fugitt
Parlay piece. Fugitt is not UFC level, he’s old, and he was handpicked to get fucked up by Miller. Bet this now before it’s -600 on fight night. Miller is fun to watch. Good prospect.

>O’malley by decision +120
Sean should stick and move to avoid a potential grappling deficit vs Song. No reason to chase a finish in a fight he’ll have sharper tools and quicker hands. Might lose a round due to control time but still a comfortable 29-28 O’Malley.

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fuck right off

Big bash cricket has been easy to bet on.
Perth win tonight’s match and the Sydney 6ers will win tomorrow. Put them together for more than double your money.

>>152976536
2 wins and a loss. Klimovicova won 2-0 and Mboko won 2-1. But Bondar got destroyed in a quick 2-0. Still waiting on the Marozsan match to finish.

Bolognia game over 4.5 cards
I was gonna put all my money on it but flushed it all on the roulette

football bets for today barca game? they might run riot

I'm backing Burgos to beat Valencia
no logic behind it, i just feel like it

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>>152982133
it's a cruel world

yamal 3+ shot
rashford 3+ shot
ferran tsa
olmo tsa

putting a fiver on this

broncos are going headhunting on josh allen and his last 3 receivers

>>152987834
The broncos D has won so many games this season by injuring their opponents best players
bountygate 2 electric boogaloo

>>152987834
Tbh I think they heem the bills

>>152984217
Pretty sparse day tomorrow. Only going for Machac to beat Paul @2.4 in Adelaide. The first round of AO starts on Sunday already so I'll be focusing on finding guaranteed losses there.

>>152987973
You VILL

>>152987973
Losing soccer bets. We get it.

>>152987834
Possible but I shall not wager on Bo Nix in the playoffs. If Denver wins it’s prob 17-16 kind of game

>>152984217
Marozsan finally ended up winning 2-1 after a long delay so that's 3 wins and 1 loss in total.

Not sure if anybody cares but going to share some miscellaneous thoughts on the players in the AO draw. I have intentionally not taken a proper look at the draw yet so that I'm not biased by any confirmed or projected matchups. Might post some specific updates once I have actually taken both draws into account.


Starting with ATP players.

ATP:

Djokovic: Big question mark about fitness. Not sure how much you can read into the AO practice session he just cancelled after a few minutes. Feel like it happened too many times where it seemed like he might be hindered and then he was actually fine for the tournament. But at his age it's something to keep in mind.
Obviously slams always see a different level of play and motivation by him
but it's starting to look like he really is reaching is physical limits.
If he spends too much time on court against lesser players, he could be a fade target in the middle rounds.


Fritz: Highly suspect he's still injured but it's not bad enough for him to withdraw. Can't imagine he has had enough to time to really deal with his knee problems. Probably my number one fade target for this tournament. Would be surprised if he makes it far and there might even be a retirement coming in, if he gets dragged into longer matches.

Auger-Aliassime: Don't buy his supposed "top 10 form at all" in these conditions. Think it was mostly a result of doing really well indoors and having a decent enough USO showing. Expect him to have an underwhelming AO and be way too much of a favourite in the early rounds.

>>152989776
Bublik: Just reached the top 10 for the first time in his career. In theory that sounds like it should be a good sign. But Bublik is someone who loves phoning it in when he's mentally satisfied. So I think there's a chance he'll take it easy if the weather is too hot for him. Potential early fade target.

Tsitsipas: Still untrustworthy but bookies have noticed it too up to the point where it's almost tempting to bet on him for some of the odds you're getting. Still don't really expect anything from this tournament despite past great showings in Melbourne. Almost too obvious of a fade target so really have to look for the right spot to do it.

Hurkacz: Surprisingly great performance after a longer injury-sustained abscence, but it also happened in the United Cup. Which is essentially just a glorified warm-up, even
if some players do seem to take it pretty seriously. Hope he has overly short odds due to the recent results because I think he's in a prime spot to have a disappointing showing now.

Medvedev: Have been fairly succeccfully fading Medvedev for months now due to his enormous drop in form. His serve has borderline disappeared and his stamina and ball-fetching isn't what it used to be anymore. He seems to have slowly recovered very recently but I still don't quite buy that he was truly tested. Think he's also a very matchup-dependent player. I've noticed that players he hasn't faced much before tend to make him more uncomfortable now. Probably because it takes him too long to get adjusted to their games. If he's facing someone in decent form, who he also hasn't really played before, I'll probably fade him.

Baez: Not someone I would talk much about for a hard court tournament but his form in recent weeks has been amazing compared to his usual level. Expect him to be overhyped for the AO and then come crashing down on some smaller side court because he wasted too much energy in all of these lead-up tournaments.

>>152989856
That's just a few names but they're the ones that came to mind first. Now some more stuff about WTA players nobody will read.

Keys: Keys: Seems to have injured herself recently and still doesn't seem fully fit. Will obviously not defend her title. Expecting a fairly early exit from AO this year. Prime fade target if the draw allows it.

Tauson: Also seems to be dealing with some kind of prolonged injury but I'm not even quite sure what it is because I don't remember her getting injured recently. Obviously struggling right now and might lose very early on.

Rybakina: Still don't really trust her outdoors. Made an exception at the tour finals a while ago because she was playing out of her mind. But I doubt she can stay fully fit in the Australian sun for like 2 weeks so I expect her to start struggling again after the early rounds.

Bencic: In great form right now. If I get the impression that the United Cup form wasn't a fluke I might start betting on her in later rounds. Although I get the impression that the hype is getting too much and she's becoming too much of a favourite in some spots.

Mboko and Jovic: Putting these together because expectations are through the roof for both of them at such a young age but they lack proper slam experience. Won't lose in the first round but will have an uncharacteristc loss they probably wouldn't have had in a 250 or something.

Ostapenko: Couldn't be on a bigger downward trend. Only really seems to care about playing doubles now. So unless she gets matched up with players way, way below her level she'll probably have an early exit so she can focus on doubles instead.

Osaka: There was a time last year where she seemed really motivated but lately that motivation seems to disappeared again. I think losing that Montreal final to Mboko flustered her. Maybe she's also distracted by real life stuff involving her agency which she's leaving so I don't really expect much from her this AO.

>>152990060
Could talk about a couple more players in both draws but I think I'll stop for now. Ended up being longer than I thought.

Just going to mention a few more players that positively surprised me in the qualifiers: Fery, Sakamoto and Budkov Kjaer on the ATP side. Maristany, Klimovicova, Starodubtseva and Tararudee on the WTA side.

Budkov Kjaer in particular was clutch as fuck in some key moments. There was a point in his match against McCabe where it seemed like he's going to get tilted early on. He lost a point due to a distraction and got into an argument with the umpire. That didn't change anything and he got broken and eventually lost the set. Still ended up winning the match anyway. Surprised about that mental strength so many of these lower ranked players tend to fall apart in these kind of situations. Maristany has been my surprise of the qualifiers for this AO. Didn't bet on her since I only had her on my radar as a typical decent clay court player that struggles on hard courts but she's been performing way about her level this time. Will be curious to see if this will carry on into the main draw. Starodubtseva and Tararudee are some of the higher-ranked players in qualifiers, so not surprised they did well, but was still impressed with their level. Tararudee has slowly been turning into a player I keep betting on regularly. Had my doubts about Starodubtseva a few months ago, but she seems to really have found form again..

>>152990185
One last thing then I'm truly done rambling: Predicting the AO winners. You can realistically only predict between Sinner and Alcaraz for any slam win right now, unless you're a madman. Think it might actually be Alcaraz. Feel like people still underappreciate the level of tennis he has shown at the USO. To be fair Sinner didn't seem fully healthy then, but I disagree with people saying that it's just going to be another clear Sinner victory again. For the WTA side I'm really not sure this time, but I think Sabalenka has choked away enough slams now so it's time for her to win a final again. Still think Swiatek is too vulnerable on hard courts right now. Much more certain who won't win this time out of the few players with reasonable odds to win, namely Keys and Rybakina. Osaka obviously won't win either.

Will take a close look at the draws in the next few days and post a long list of losing picks for the first day soon.

Based tennis kraut. Thank you for the analysis. My money is on Alcaraz, think he’s solved Sinner on hard courts.

espanyol @ 1.90

Three bets @2 passed yesterday,100% success :)
2 single leg hockeys, one 2-legs football
footy was tense though

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odds weren't great so i had to improvise, less faith on monaco

which nfl teams are going to win on the weekend?

>>152988429
Machac won 2-1. That's a win for what should be my last pick before the AO main draw starts. Don't think I'll go for anything else tomorrow. Despite the terrible Wednesday I think I did pretty alright this past week or so.

Didn't mention him specifically in the posts above but Paul is also somebody I don't expect to do particularly well at AO. He's been dealing with a lot of smaller injuries and seems to have lost a lot of his baseline consistency recently. Definitely hasn't made real progress in his game in a while now and has mostly plateaued. Don't think AO is the tournament where that changes drastically again. He'll probably need some time throughout the year to find footing again.

Have actually taken a look at both draws now so I'll probably post some thoughts on potential projected matches and paths later tonight.

>>152994307
I like all the dogs. But realistically I think its bills texans niners rams

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I still have my bronkies to win da superbowl. Fuck Josh allen and fuck everyone left its MY bronkies season. 2025 is my year 2026 is the year of the horse MY white boy corner is wearing 777 after last years 33 bix nood is 25 and WE 1488d on national television during the white boy summer season

Sharks/wings >1.5 FPG
Ducks/LAK <1.5 FPG
Betting all 5 matches for over under too

>>152997180
It would be cool if they could do it.

>>152999145
I think its bears broncos for maximum magic

any thoughts on creighton-providence?

>>152995686
Going through the ATP draw from top to bottom:

Alcaraz seems to have a pretty favourable draw. He definitely could have gotten more unfavourable higher seeds in his section. Should be a pretty comfortable ride into the semis. Paul has given him trouble before but I don't think he should be much of a problem in his current shape. That would also require Paul to reach the fourth round and I'm not sure I see that happening. Quarters should be Alcaraz against the winner of Bublik and De Minaur. But could see Bublik losing earlier on. Already talked about that. De Minaur should make the fourth round pretty comfortably I'd say. Don't see too many troubling matches for him up until that point. If he doesn't face Bublik there he'll most likely make quarters. Korda is somebody else I haven't really talked about but I can also see him fall apart early on and lose in the second round or something.

Zverev is the next top seed and he seems to have a pretty tough draw. Diallo is one of the tougher first round slam opponents in a while. Especially since Diallo loves coming to the net and I think Zverev kind of struggles with these kind of players. Seems to have trouble in general moving forward or backward on the court. There's also a chance he might have to play Cerundolo later in the draw but I don't really think Cerundolo will make it far enough. Will probably be Rublev in the fourth round. If Medvedev somehow evades being uspet early on there's a good chance he will make quarters and he has always been a difficult matchup for Zverev. Auger-Aliassime is potentially in his section too but I don't think he'll make it too far realistically. Could see someone like Cazaux or Majchrzak make it surprisingly far in this section. Don't expect any out of Zverev, Medvedev or Auger-Aliassime to make the semis. Think this might be Rublev's first semi-final appearance. Or some lower ranked player nobody really expected.

>>153000556
Next top seed going through the draw would be Djokovic. Despite my doubts about his physical condition he actually seems to have a pretty comfortable first few rounds. Don't see much upset potential in the first few rounds. Maybe Nakashima can put up a fight? But probably only for a set or so. First real test is probably Mensik or Hurkacz in the fourth round. Already talked about Hurkacz being in a prime position to disappoint and historically he has done so when the expectations were high. I'd go with Mensik here. If he can stay fit and if Djokovic doesn't completely cruise through the first matches, this could be interesting. Quarter-final should be against Musetti but I still don't really trust Musetti on hard courts so I expect him to disappoint again in some way. Fritz is there too but I already talked about his injury so I don't expect much from him. Could see Lehecka or Machac making it deep if their bodies don't fall apart as usual. Tsitsipas has regressed too much and Dimitrov has been off the courts for too long so I don't really see them making it too far.

Sinner is in the last section of the draw and he'll obviously make at least the semi-final. He's probably play Shelton in the quarters. Sinner is probably going to crush most opponents as usual but the third round against Fonseca or maybe even Wu could be interesting. Khachanov is another high seed I expect to lose fairly early. Could even see him going out in the first round against Michelsen. Don't think Baez can keep up the same level of the past 2 weeks and Mpteshi Perricard is forced to grind too many tiebreaks in the hot sun with this kind of playstyle but maybe if he keeps his first serve percentage up really high he could sneak into the deeper rounds. Not much else to say about this section.

Will post concrete picks and maybe a few more thoughts here and there on actual first round matchups for each day.

>>153000689
Picks for Sunday:

Schoolkate to beat Moutet @3.4

Diallo to win a set against Zverev @1.7

Zheng to win set against Korda @1.45

Dzumhur to beat Draxl @1.75

Gibson to beat Blinkova @1.95

Maristany to beat Kudermetova @4.1


Going back and forth between another pick or two so might add some tomorrow but six should be enough for Sunday so I'll try to refrain. Only going day by day for the picks because I really want to concentrate on the matches for the day and take my time to consider everything, even if I might get fucked by some line movement later on.

>>153000689
One more thing I forgot to mention. Fonseca hasn't really been playing or even properly practicing lately due to some back problems. Think Wu taking him out might actually happen. That's assuming Fonseca even makes it past Spizzirri in the first round.

>>153000689
Will probably write some stuff about the WTA draw tomorrow. This took longer than expected again. One thing I'll already say about the WTA side is that Navarro @150 caught my eye for futures odds. Not saying she'll win AO because she definitely won't but I consider these odds too high for someone with pretty good recent slam showings. I think she tends to play herself into form at most slams even when she's been struggling otherwise. Her draw looks reasonable as well.She's favoured in the first two rounds and Muchova in the third round is scary, but Muchova always has a tendency to fall apart physically. In the fourth round she'd most likely play Gauff who is also beatable for her. If she's playing well enough to make it that far who knows what might happen in quarters. But the point is I don't see any borderline unwinnable matchups for her until like the semi-final. I said I'm done peddling futures for now a while ago but I sprinkled a tiny bit on Navarro @150 just because I think the odds might reach a point where you can cash out or start betting against her. Watch her lose to like Li in the second round now.

>>152992993
Thanks but I definitely wouldn't go as far as saying that Alcaraz has solved Sinner on hard courts or really on any surface. Sinner just beat him 2-0 in the tour finals but those were completely different conditions indoors so don't think it should matter much for AO. I do think people are still sleeping on Alcaraz hard court game in general. He didn't have the hardest draw at the USO but some of his play was insane. He definitely made big improvements on that surface since that AO disappointment last year, even if he still kind of struggles indoors. Another thing to consider for Sinner is that Alcaraz just lost Ferrero as his main coach. Don't think he necessarily needs Ferrero to perform but he was sort of a mentor figure for him at times so will be interesting to see how he adjusts to not having Ferrero on court for big matches. The weather conditions in the final should also shouldn't be too hot since it will be a bit later in the day so the ball won't bounce as much as Alcaraz usually likes. There's also some mental pressure of it being the only slam left he has never won but I doubt Alcaraz is the kind of player who is bothered too much by that kind of thing. The draw for both of them doesn't look particularly challenging so they both shouldn't be spending too much time on court, which is probably also in Sinner's favour. Alcaraz wants to play into some form whereas Sinner is good coming off of light matches and breaks.

Still going with Alcaraz overall because I get the impression that Sinner is too desperate to try to change things for Alcaraz since 99% of the current draw is borderline sleepwalk material for him right now.

my 2 bets today
Arsenal to beat Forest @1.57
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen - Btts + o2.5 goals @1.65

Can City draw with United? Or should I retire my bet?

City
Arsenal
Dortmund
Rapid
Marseille

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>>153001888
Has potential for 7+ imo. You know which game reminds me of?

>>152994307
I don’t believe in the Broncos or Pats. They both beat up on shit teams all season. Texans D should be able to keep it close even if Stroud sucks again.

>>153002382
Also should mention I have a buddy who works at a retail sportsbook. He said the “respected” customers are almost all betting Seahawks -7 while the general public is on SF +7

>>153002412
The wildcard was all sharp traps i wouldn't trust where the sharps are going

>>153002635
You are correct but I doubt the sharp betters get destroyed twice in a row

>>153002745
Thats exactly what scares me lol the nfl knows that we know how to bet so they've gone balls out with the prestige tier chicanery

>>153002745
>>153002799
going square AF with bills money line and niners plus 7 tomorrow. unders in both games

josh allen over 36.5 rushing yards @ 1.90

>>153003400
His knee is bad. He hardly ran in the 2nd half against Jax. Just sneaks and a couple scrambles when the pocked collapsed.

>>153003497
Bounty broncos with a grudge are the worst team he could play. He should pray the nfl doesnt want him hum ritualed

>>152982969
>>152999132
Both of these worked
I’m hoping the renegades bat 2nd in bbl tonight because if they do I’ll be putting some fruity bets on them

>>153003497
then fade me i dont give a fuck. they also said his finger was fucked up after he hit his hand on that jaguars players helmet, but he ended up throwing his longest pass of the game afterwards. the media is a platform for spreading narratives and when these sports talk shows are sponsored by the books why would they have incentive to tell you the truth?

>>153003515
just like how sean payton was supposed to run up the score on the queefs in a "revenge" game but ended up playing a 4 quarter game against a 3rd string quarterback?

>>153003659
These games are dictated by the whims of the sportsbooks. The broncos play the ball theyre supposed to play

>>153003682
Yes anon, 1600 active roster players, another 500 coaches, 17 ref crews, owners and league officials. Everyone is in on the fix. No one ever says a word.

It's all fixed.

>>153003951
Right because Aaron rodgers throws a pick six to hit the over organically lol. Or that goff 1st touchdown that new york called down and pulled was organic. Acting like every retarded nog in the league is in on it is laughable and typical uneducated logistical thinking. You need head coaches and the refs. Thats it. And yes no ones telling because youre going to get hit by a truck accidentally and the millions of dollars in your pocket give zero incentive to go to some random retarded zogbot on th street and say hey lol here's proof the nfl is fixed

>2001 and the patriots dynasty just happened
>cam newton's giant ass just second guesses a fumble in the superbowl where Peyton manning literally cant throw balls anymore
>Falcons just decide to not run the ball in the second half of a superbowl guaranteed win
>mahomes being genuinely dragged to last years owl so he could be tarred and feathered

>>153003553
They batted 1st coolguy.jpg
Will invest that money on goals in North district vs Kowloon Hong Kong soccer

I like city and Troyes
Might parlay Troyes and red star and go simple on city

>>153004393
Picked the wrong match :(

sawangkaew 4.50

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>get a set ml bet at +900
>break to make it even
>break to serve for set
>lose 3 straight
Motherfucker

>>153004892
Been eyeing this as well but I fear that Sawangkaew's serve right now doesn't hold up at all.

>>153005201
Toth? Some of these WTA scorelines will make you lose years of your lifespan.

Finner put 10k on Derrick Lewis ml for ufc this 24th

>>153004595
I did that, city fucked up but the parlay passed so I'm winning overall

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what is the catch here? what am i missing?

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i bet on manchester city didn't i

>>153009029
House it lol

>>153009029
it's just a promo basically, there's a limit to how much you're allowed to bet.

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You guys are losing lots of money, aren't you?

>>153011550
okay, but it's saying literally 1 passing yard in the entire game? between both QBs? it literally cannot lose. even for a promo they woudn't do that.

>>153007598
He’s gonna get jabbed and leg kicked until he quits in the 2nd. Waldo has an insane chin and he’s a much better athlete. Derrick can’t win unless Waldo gets hurt

>>153004018
Meds. Now.

The total was 38.5 and the pick six made it 30-6 you fucking retard. Get off the internet.

>>153001652
>winning week
>feeling good
>decide to finally post some bets here after a while
>lose both
The curse is real.

>>153011864
It’s a promo to get you to use the app more
They’re betting you’re going to blow the $20 you win before redeeming it

>>153011864
Drug dealers give out the first hit for free
Same shit.

>>153011947
Oh boo hoo you refuted one point from one sportsbook lol youre as retarded as mahomes 3 fake superbowls

>>153012074
I can never tell if this site is full of 80 IQ schizos or if it’s all memes

>>153012175
The patriot act and the war on terror do not just conveniently happen with the patriots dynasty

>>153000869
Thoughts on the WTA draw:

Sabalenka's section looks very comfortable for her. Don't really see anybody who could realistically threaten her up until the quarters. First three rounds are a given especially with Raducanu apparantly being injured as usual. I could see Tauson in the fourth round being a challenge if she actually was healthy. But I don't think she is and she probably won't even make it that far. Mboko isn't experienced enough, especially in slams, so she shouldn't be a tough matchup either. In the quarter-final she would probably play one out of Alexandrova, Kostyuk or Paolini. I'd say probably Kostyuk based on current form but it's always dangerous to assume the form of pre-slam tournaments will carry over into the actual slam draw. Alexandrova would probably be the hardest opponent she could face until the semis. Sabalenka should be cruising for the most part. She makes it to the semis of pretty much every slam anyway but this draw seems particularly comfortable. In this section I could see Galfi and Hon making it a bit further than expected.

Gauff is in the next section. Already talked about this section a bit because of Navarro and I still think there's a chance she sneaks her way into fourth round and maybe even the quarters. Overall a pretty comfortable section for Gauff I'd say. Vondrousova in the third round would be a tough early matchup but Vondrousova doesn't seem fit and I can even see her losing to Baptise in the first round and essentially just showing up for the first round prize money. Muchova in the fourth round could also be scary, but historically Gauff has always done really well against her by forcing her to overcommit to get anything going in the point. Actually think Navarro who played herself into some form in the early rounds might genuinely be the hardest opponent up until quarters. In quarters she'd probably face Svitolina or Andreeva. Krejcikova is there too but doesn't seem fit enough for a deep run.

Going for Allen and Cook ATS and bills win@$5.50

>>153012937
What are your best bets for the first round of the Aussie open?

>>153013143
I posted my picks for Sunday here >>153000785
I'll post stuff for the other days in the following days. I'm also on the verge of considering Baptiste and Sawangkaew.

>>153012937
The top seed of the next section is Anisimova. She's projected to play Pegula in the quarter-final. I'd expect Pegula to reach the quarters but I'm not entirely sure about Anisimova. She made the finals of the past 2 slams and has an unprecedented top ranking. Think she might be due for a less impressive showing this time but I don't have annything concrete I could base this on. I just think it's too straining for her to make this many deep runs when she's not on the same level as someone like Sabalenka, Swiatek or even Gauff. Keys is also in this section but already I said I doubt she'll make it far this time. Could see Kalinina or Tjen making a deeper run than expected in this section.

Last section is Swiatek's. She's projected to play Rybakina in the quarters. But I expect Rybakina to lose to Bencic or maybe even Mertens in the fourth round. Even Valentova in the third round could be a challenge. Maybe Kalinskaya can give Swiatek a scare in the third round but realistically I don't see Swiatek losing before quarters. Osaka isn't motivated enough and Samsonova is too anemic at times. Nobody else is really a threat.

The more I look at this draw the more I like my Navarro future. It's completely unrealistic to expect her to win but a deep run is all I really want out of it. Compared to other players with similarly low chances I find her odds to be too high.

>>153013453
Ok cool i like that maristany bet ill tail that

>>153003400
sucks when they clear the line in the first half but the books dont pay out until the 4th quarter.

>>153000785
Decided I'm adding Baptiste to win the first set against Vondrousova @3.4 and Sawangkaew to win the first set against Raducanu @3.5 now. Can't shake the impression that Vondrousova isn't ready to play at all and is just forcing an appearance. Could see retirements in either of these matches happening so I'm going with the first sets.

>>153015973
he could rush for negative yards.
kind of ridiculous really that sacks dont count against passing or rushing yards

Gibson is completely wiping the floor with Blinkova. Baffling that Blinkova was a favourite.

My bronkies masonic 33d on the billies >:)

>Every bet from the early game lost
>Only bet from the late game that was left already dead

At least I won't have to sweat anything out for the rest of today.

>>153017355
The Baptiste match is cancelled because Vondrousova has withdrawn. Had the right read but she didn't even show up to play.

Only my retarded broncos would kill their qb on a meaningless run with 2 plays left lmao

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Sneed it or keep it? Cash out was 170 a few mins ago

bet $90 on cj stroud rushing attempts over 3.5 @ 2.17 on pinnacle to win $105.30
bet $100 on cj stroud rushing attempts under 3.5 @ 1.95 on bet365 to win $95.23
you win $5 no matter what happens

>>153025019
you like the over in hanfmann-svadja? or svdja to cover?

>>153028777
So do this with 5000 dollars each

>>153029117
if you arent worried about having 10k possibly locked away in a banned account you can make over $250 just by watching sports if you bet 5grand on the under and $4498 on the over.

>>153029089
The over seems alright but I wouldn't trust Svajda to cover anything here. In fact I think Hanfmann wins this.

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Preface this with im not a bettor at all and have no idea what im doing:
I put $10 on this three leg parlay with zero understanding of what I was doing, did it while drinking with the boys.
I also dont know enough to understand why this didnt pay out.
Either way im only out $10 but if you could explain it that would be cool

>bo nix breaks his fucking foot
>immediately gets giant PI to end the game cause he cant throw on it
>snaps his ankle anyway
Bizarro world

>>153004892
lost, still think it was worth a shot

>>153000785
>>153017355
4 wins, 1 push and 3 losses in total. Did well enough for the first day I'd say. Gibson won 2-0, Dzumhur won 3-0, Diallo lost but won the first set and Zheng downright won the whole match. Regret not going with the full Zheng win instead of a single set. Expected Korda to disappoint but didn't think he'd immediately lose in the first round. Also dumb of me to overlook Fery. Mentioned him as a player who impressed in qualifiers and then I completely ignored him. To be fair Cobolli was sick which explains the 3-0 scoreline.

Maristany lost in a convincing 2-0. Should have known that advancing in the main draw would be too much to ask for, but had to go for it with these odds. Sawangkaew also lost 2-0 but should have won the first set. She had a chance to go up a double break. Only loss I regret is Schoolkate. I keep underestimating Moutet lately. Thought the lack of recent court time and his tendency to get frustrated when things aren't going his way could be factors here. But Schoolkate was simply too bad to take advantage of anything. Couldn't even win the third set when Moutet hurt himself.

Picks for Monday going to be posted later today.

>>153032174
You think Potapova beats Raducanu now?

>>153029089
By the way, what was your play for the Hanfmann match? He won 3-1. Not sure why Svajda was a favourite to be honest. But I hate betting on Hanfmann.

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Thank God I cashed out before the refs did

>>153029482
Seattle won by over 20.5 points.
41 to 6
41-21 = 20
20>6

>>153032988
That + money bills after being + money reverse line flipped in the jags game was a super trap. Legitimate bait

>>153032688
i would skip potapova/raducanu completely

klimovicova 1.70
volynets 3.40 - just a suggestion, i don't bet against iva - iva was in a final and she had a taped thigh and she was pretty tired.

>>153033589
Alright, still got some time to consider it. But if Potapova's odds keep rising I'll probably have to go for it.

>>153033612
Good shouts but I'm not sure I like Klimovicova for these odds. Wish it was more in the 1.8 range.

>>153032708
i just took the over, which hit comfortably. it was the way i was leaning and you help confirm that.

barcelona -1 @ 2.05

Broncos are winning next week's game

>Dalton Schultz hurt

Love that he made sure to get tackled at the 1-yard line right before that. Fuck off.

>>153039235
>he bet?

>>153032688
Borges to win a set against Auger-Aliassime @1.4

Budkov Kjaer to beat Opelka @2.65

Erjavec to win a set against Frech @2.25

Galfi to beat Tauson @2.9

Jones to win a set against Mboko @2.15

Starodubtseva to beat Tomljanovic @2.15


Would love to also go for a Tararuude play here since she was great in qualifiers. But I fear that Mertens is simply too much for her right now

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>>152980204

>Defensive TD
>Rhamondre Stevenson hurt too

Yep, that'll end my day already.

I know naught of futbol americano, what are the current standings for the brackets? Are there currently play offs for said date?

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>>152980204
You don’t need 1 million to goon all day, man. Take a look at Anon; he’s broke n’ don’t do shit but goon.

>>153041646
They won. How did your day end?

>>153041751
>I no not of American futbol
>American flag
I think this is what they call the divisionals, but it’s basically the quarterfinals.

Navarro just lost 2-1 in the first round to Linette. Amazing future I managed to grab there.

>>153033612
won or void depending how the bookie handles it

Jarrett Stidham...

i bet on the pats -4.5 spread @ 1.90 as soon as the book opened the line. the line has already moved to -5.5 on bet365, but you can still get -4.5 @ 1.86 on pinnacle. i would even lock a smaller bet in on pats -6.5 @ 2.05, and maybe even ladder up to -9.5 @ 2.55. broncos have a good defense, but without bo nix they will have a tough time hanging around in this game. courtland sutton has been pretty quiet the last few weeks and this game will take way more than just handing the ball off to rj harvey with the way the pats have been stopping the run these playoffs. if forsyth cant get healthy for this game the broncos will be playing a backup qb under a third string center. disaster scenario that would pretty much need a miracle to even keep it a 1 score game.

i took the over in nakashima-zandschulp. starting to worry nakashima is just going to roll over here.

>>153057909
The defense needs to pitch a perfect game

>>153033612
nope iva won again

>>153057909
-4.5 is free money assuming the backup QB isn’t special, they are asking a lot of that guy

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>>153040085
You should stop betting man

>>153059241
The backup is special. Hes like 80% of nix. Stroud is about 20% of nix. I'll take those odds.

Im a bo nix critic. He had to win me over this year but after that playoff game im am forever hooked on bonix. However in the preseason when I was not hooked on said bonix I legit though stidham looked better running Paytons offense. Hes taller, reads the field better so he doesnt need to roll out as much, and hes got great touch. This is the legend of stidham and the 67 8

>>153032988
Good for you, man.

>>153040085
1 win and 5 losses. Only thing that worked was the Borges set. Borges won the match because Auger-Aliassime retired. I knew Auger-Aliassime would start struggling again outdoors. Everything else was a miserable failure.

>>153060296
I've been highly considering it, thanks.

bejlek 2.00
sramkova 2.00
lys 2.00

How much I win if I pick if I bet 20 on Denver to win SB

i was going to bet 1000 on Anderson and Hunter both having 1 sack but i chickened out and only did 100

Fucking MONEY is coming in on the broncos

>>153061967
line aint movin

>>153061115
around $250 right now
if you want something little safer bet on them to cover +3.5 against the pats. if they win you can bet on them in the owl.
win about $60 if they cover both. probably around 150 if they cover the pats and win the owl

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>>153060843
can you tell me who is injured and/or mentally weak and likely to retire?
its for promo arbitage.

Any of yall betting on the college football thing today?

>>153064021
I like the under. Two elite defenses and two programs who aren’t used to being on this stage. Indiana wins about 21 to 10

>>153062577
Draft kings went all the way to 200 ml

>>153061967
5.5 is too many. Nix just isn’t that good and the market is assigning him a TD of value

>>153064111
I see

>>153064111
How are the weather conditions? That’ll really solidify neither team scoring too much

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I bet on Indiana winning and the score being over 47.5

>>153064631
>>153064111
So we have an under and an over?

>>153064731
I don’t see Miami scoring enough to hit the over. Indiana would have to score 35 or more against a nasty defense

>>153064750
I love that you’re making a case for it.

>>153064631
What do you think, over 47.5 anon? I just dropped 5 contracts for an under 57.5

>>153064834
I’m a mega casual and saw Indiana put like 50+ over Oregon

I’m just betting on Indiana scoring a shitload of points desu

is betting on monaco to beat real madrid tomorrow madness?

>>153062778
I think Moutet hurt himself in the last set against Schoolkate so I can see him possibly retiring. Fritz is still dealing with knee tenditis so there's retirement potential in most of his matches. Probably not in the first round but I wouldn't rule it out completely. Ostapenko doesn't seem fit either and could retire to save energy for singles. Fonseca is still dealing with back issues and didn't properly practice for AO so it seems like he's forcing himself to compete.

>>153065230
Pliskova also hasn't played since early October and seems permacrocked.

the pats have never won a playoff game in the mile high city. 0-4 in the playoffs. the broncos also gave tom brady his first career playoff loss and that was before manning played for them. champ bailey made possibly one of the greatest plays in nfl playoff history with the broncos leading 10-6 but the pats on the broncos 5 yard line looking to take the lead going into the 4th quarter. champ bailey picks tom brady off in the endzone and returns in 100+ yards for the td, 14 point swing. a career defining moment for a hall of fame player, and one many consider to be the greatest db of all time. jake plummer was the broncos qb that game, and before the game started he was 29th in the nfl for passer rater and threw 12ints-11tds through the season. tom brady was already a 3x superbowl champion at this point, mike vrabel was a part of that team too. not sure if patrick surtain can be this generations champ bailey, but we could have possibly seen this episode before.

>>153065017
Hey man, even mega casuals should at least do some research. I lost too much on an over for Bears v Rams because I didn’t know it was going to fucking snow and I didn’t think that would impact anything after.

>>153064834
the teams will take too long to drive the ball down the field to score. mendoza will probably only make like 20ish passing attempts, once they get ahead it will be a steady dose of kaelon black running the ball. i dont trust carson beck to throw the ball deep down the field. guy can barely read defenses, he will be making shallow passes to toney or marion who will have to make a play in the open field for some YAC because beck certainly isnt going to throw it very far. also the hurricanes have absolutely terrible clock management. many times in past games where they have no sense of urgency while the clock is ticking down.
i also like the miami hurricanes under 9.5 total points at half time @ 1.95

>>153065512
You’ve put a lot of thoughts into your bets, leaf, so ho much are you able to rake in with this much research?

>>153062730
Terrible advice
The cashout amount pre Super Bowl will be higher than the amount if he takes +3.5 and bets on them to win the superbowl

>>153065599
thats only if they beat the pats outright. if they cover and lose hes got $40.
which is why i suggested it as a safer option, not a more profitable one.

>>153065230
>>153065256
good info. thanks

Waldo cortes Acosta has fought 5 fights in a calendar year and is going up against Derrick Lewis the current heavyweight cleaner who also said everything's rigged and they want him at the white house fight.

I'm in California, what's the best overseas book for not fucking with your money, not being kyc assclowns the nanosecond you want payout.
I care about literally nothing else. Bonuses. Surrenders. Doesn't matter.

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i wish i could bet on the game taking longer than 4 hours

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I have this funny bet I did ages ago. I’ll ride it past the broncos but then it’s cash out time surely.

The clittors shit the bed lol

>>153040085
Losing picks for Tuesday:

Royer to win a set against Fritz @1.8

Sun to beat Fruhvirtova @1.7

Udvardy to win the first set against Siniakova @5

Ruzic to win a set against Osaka @2.2

I got IU to win it all at +125 after the Alabama game. It’s a pretty small bet and I feel good about it. Should I bother hedging?

>>153065926
i doubt there will be any book that wont ask for kyc verification when you try to withdraw. not just to prove your age and identity but because location is also heavily regulated. you cant even really spoof your ip with a vpn to trick the bigger books. they really care about where you live. if you want no kyc you will probably have to try a book that lets you gamble with crypto or else a site like polymarket or kalshi.

>>153066862
probaby. feels fucky. everyone says miami has no chance but its only 7.5

>>153068149
Yeah I thought about it again and it would have been stupid not to. If Indiana wins by 7 or less I'll win both my bets this way.

>>153068149
>>153068434
Oh cool I'm extra glad I did now that I see they're going to let Miami continue to be a bush league outfit.

Ok, so the total score is now only 3. Over and Under Anons, how’re y’all feeling?

>>153070138
Then again, the second quarter is when most of the scores occur.

Keys is fighting for her life against Oliynykova when she should be sleepwalking to a routine victory here. Could barely avoid losing the first set. Might have to go with Krueger to beat her in the next round.

>>153070785
Is she still not going to win?

>>153070960
What do you mean?

>>153071070
I mean Keys is still winning

>>153070138
Overbros…it’s over

>>153071220
Yeah, she'll obviously win this match because Oliynykova isn't good enough. Had a million chances to win the first set and couldn't do it. Now it's obviously over for her. But Krueger is on a different level.

>>153071314
I can imagine. So then what’s your payout?

>>153071653
Sorry, but I don't get what you're asking. What payout? The odds for the Keys - Krueger match aren't even up yet.

>>153071827
I thought you bet on this game

>>153072124
No, just been keeping an eye on this match because I want to fade Keys but I thought her first round opponent was too bad to put up a real fight.

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>>153068434
LMFAO I was texting my dad about this exact scenario and one millisecond after I hit send IU blocked the punt. I have never jinxed myself this hard ever. God is real. He hates pride. Luck is a thing. I repent.

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>>153072666
>666
Bros am I going to hell?

>>153072193
Dimitrov-Machac over? It's set at 40.5

>>153064631
Way to go. The last quarter was a complete upset of unders.

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>>153064631
Congratulations

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>>153064631
>>153072666
We did it bro.

>>153074616
Don't like it. Think either player is way too prone to tanking right now if things aren't going their way. Could see this being a 3-0 for Machac even. Not sure if Dimitrov is fit.

>>153074963
hurkacz-bergs? set at the same.

>>153075016
I definitely prefer that one if I have to choose between two 40.5 lines.

>>153075246
okay. i took that over and machac to cover -1.5

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My baby bets. Hold all the way through?

Yolo on the broncos

>>153075513
How much are you down in general?

>>153076152
For this year? Like $9. I put in $50 at the beginning of each football season to fuck around with.

I’ve lost 7 consecutive bets despite being in good shape about 80% of the overall game time. Fade my picks for the foreseeable future lads.

>>153061041
all lost. lol. that's me done for the ao.

Went for Bodo-Mancity BTTS and Tott - Dort O2.5 goals.

>>153066755
2 wins and 2 losses. Pretty much broke even for the day. Royer lost 3-1. Could have even won another set so that worked perfectly. Ruzic won the second set. Unsurprisingly Siniakova completely destroyed Udvardy. But I regret the Sun bet. She hasn't been playing lately so I should have expected her to not be ready to compete.

Betano withheld 200 euro from me it's so fucking over bros you go on without me

>>153076560
Same here. I was up 4 figures each of the last 3 nfl playoffs and I’m 1-8 this year lol

How does sports betting taxes work in the US?

Do these platforms give you a tax statement at eoy to take to h & r block or something?

>>153079243
Yes, but they only actually report it if you make a certain amount in profit

>>153079248
>only if you profit.
Sweet, one less thing to worry about

>>153079243
99% of bettors don’t have to worry about it lol

>>153079731
Well there isn’t any income to tax if you don’t make a profit. Technically speaking you should include any amount in your gross income but they only file a form if you’re over some threshold that I don’t remember

>>153079243
I wonder, what happens if you double your bet 10 times. Do you pay taxes on the total "winning" bets or only on the biggest sum?

>>153080075
Total winnings. Payouts minus deposits

>>153075513
id put a little on the rams to cover 3.5

>>153080082
You expect them to win by that much?

>>153079248
taxes are withheld if you win 300x your bet. income reported to IRS if you win more than $600, but that has been increased to $2k starting 2026.
theres also a lot of funny business with promos that helps suppress your winnings because casinos dont want to deal with the IRS anymore than players do. some count free spins and bonuses lost cash. many pay out odds boosts as seperate line item from winnings.
and the IRS accepts betting journals as evidence of losses so it would be pretty easy to manipulate and not worth their time unless you owe thousands.

>>153080142
The Seahawks are the favorite

>>153080142
rams +3.5 -155 on dk right now. $6.20 pays $10.20. but i misread and though you had $2 on the seahawks to make it to the owl, not win. that makes it a little more risky to hedge and I'd probably just ride it out.

>>153080272
>>153080220
I’m still new to this, I thought cover meant -3.5.

tottenham vs dortmund - both teams to score + over 2.5 goals @ 2.00

>put Man City in a parlay, bros. No way they lose to... BodoGlimit(?)
This is why I don't bet soccer. Dumbest sport ever.

>>153081597
i bet over 1.5 first half

>>153081597
It can get dumber you'll see
Give it 20 minutes

all matches today will be btts except real madrid

>>153080745
It just means winning with the spread factored in, either direction

>>153081597
Don't bet soccer.
The only soccer bet worth making is competitive international unders
I made a killing on Euro unders last time
At one point like 12/13 games went under 2.5

>>153082707
Right. Because the Rams aren’t winning but at least they won’t lose by four points. I’m also learning that most sportsbooks do half points so as to not push back bets.

>>153078635
Dzumhur to win a set against Cerundolo @1.55

Borges to beat Thompson @1.5

Majchrzak to beat Marozsan @2.4

Zheng to beat Moutet @2.25

Hon to win a set against Jovic @2.55

I have a list of 7/8 polymarket sports accounts I follow. Legit 3/4 had a Psg no win bet on before the first 20 mins of that match. How did they all individually know or are they all following each other. Even further a few had city no win.

>>153085758
Insider trading. Youre at the very ass end of useful knowledge here. The entire reason rich people do gay shit like golf and boating is so they can meet other rich people to talk about how they can collude and make more money

>>153079243
So does it need to be reported by me every year even if I don't make enough or only if I make enough

>>153086901

Meant for >>153079248
And
>>153080165 as well

>>153085739
>Zheng to beat Moutet @2.25
he's shitting his pants

Perth was an easy bet last night in bbl just like Hobart is in this next one

remember to always chase your loses.

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BEHOLD
The successful 20 leg multi.

>>153091050
are you rich or stupid?

>>153091099
I am both.

>>153091116
nice.

>>153091050
Wait you bet 340 and you only 10x on a 20 leg?

>>153085739
>betting against iva
:-)

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20€ on pathetico

Pats will narrowly beat the Broncos.

Seahawks will best the Rams

What do we have today? Im gonna start gambling hard

>>153092384
mammoth ‐1.5

Today on the chilean supercopa Limache defeats Coquimbo for 4.6, Im putting some money on that, seems like a good bet

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>>153092685
alright

i need a third goal in this atletico match.

barca -1.5 @ 1.86

anyone know what the hecks going on with betmgm withdrawals from last weekend?

>>153093348
i hate atletico so so much

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One more
4+ bayern st gilloise
4+ slavia barca
3+ marseille liverpoo
5+ newcastle psv

I fucking hate Frankfurt so much

>>153085739
Another rough day. 1 win, 1 push and 3 losses. Dzumhur, Majchrzak and Hon all got destroyed. Borges won 3-1 and Zheng retired at 2-1. I think I'll keep going until Friday and if I still haven't had a single worthwhile day I'll stop with AO.

>>153091369
Jovic is obviously really good at her age but I think she has started to reach the point where she's too much of a favourite at times. My bad for trusting Hon to do anything here. Too greedy. Should have just faded Raducanu like I initially planned. Of course she loses 2-0 to Potapova.

Fuck this shit. FML and FUCK BETTING

Huhnchen is 0-0 at HT with the antilopes

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>>153094277
>>153093749
Time to stop guys. You can do it. I have faith in you

NEVER
BE
GAME
OVER

amazed at how often you guys lose soccer bets yet you keep coming back over and over lmao
at least the ufcfags get half their picks right
soccerfags lose 75% or more

>>153094307
You think I'm being sarcastic but I have genuinely considered stopping lately. I always feel like I have mostly reasonable reads but I always get baited by odds and somehow select all the stuff that doesn't end up working out. If I can't figure out anything soon enough I'll probably stop posting by the time clay seasons starts.

What's the hockey bets today

>>153094372
You actually respond to trolls?

>>153094403
I don't care if it's trolling since it resonates with thoughts I've had myself.

Need 7 more goals

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i just chickened out on a hard 8 parlay and only won $45 instead of $450. i need to stop being a pussy and bet harder.

>>153094799
Literally happened to me just now im such a coward i should kill myself already.

>>153094373
mammoth -1.5 o5.5
mackinnon goal and/or mackinnon over 1.5 pts
kraken ML

You know that question that if your life would depend on a penalty kick, who would you choose to take it? I said Harry Kane. On the other hand, when i had 5+ in switzerland sweden, they subbed in a young dindu ~85th min, and i was mumbling, literally "don't put in this guy" , and he scored for 4-1 in 90+3

right in tottenhams kek range going into the last matchweek.

Big loss on that Bayern game. Had over 2.5, kane misses penalty, olise misses open goal. Cashed out my over 3.5 the second the red card happened, didn't go through on polymarket. Very very mad.

>>153093113
>>153092685
never change, chile

>>153085739
Have to share my losing picks for the day:

Wu to beat Spizzirri @2.2

Krueger to beat Keys @4.5

Siegemund to beat Inglis @1.7

Siniakova to win a set against Anisimova @1.8

Fade all of these and you'll make a good profit.

>>153095383
It was rigged, its not my fault

https://x.com/TNTSportsCL/status/2014125752766120010

>>153096334
>play the ball in front of your own goal
>bad thing happens
ignoring the fundamentals should be a red card for the player and a massive fine for the club.

Why is money still coming in on denver ml for the afcg

Krueger with a mindblowing choke. Will lose 7-5 when she was up 5-2 and even had a match point on serve.

>>153096797
breh stop betting on the ao and wait for the next tournie

>>153096895
Yeah, I think I'll stop with AO after tonight if this Krueger choke is a sign for the rest of the matches.

>>153096934
you like the over more in shapavalov-cilic or spizziri-wu?

>>153097558
Think Shapovalov - Cilic is an under match. I would take the over in the Wu match because I doubt either player wins 3-0.

Saint Marys -19 against Ore St
Ducks are very bad away from home. Bet against Ore St
Game starts in 40 min

wu looks like shit

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i like how on stake it shows you what the high rollers are betting on and then you see people betting like 10 grand on 1.01 odds

>>153097746
a rare good tip even though you don't know oregon state is the beavers

>>153098116
what do you know, he pulled it out

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Now to put to all on Iva :)

Going for goals in rangers,villa and genk Europa matches tomorrow. Anyone reckon another matchup might have a bunch of goals?

Lyon over 1.5 goals @1.72

>>153094858
i just did it again. i hate myself

>>153098907
Knew the match wouldn't end 3-0. But of course Spizzirri had to win. Shapovalov with an embarrassing 3-0 loss too. Didn't think it would be this clear of an under match.

>>153098907
unfair. they threw me out of the arena when I did it

>>153095526
4 out of 4 miserable losses. Couldn't have been more predictable. Great chokes by Krueger and Siegemund in particular. Beyond embarrassing picks all week. I'm done with the AO for now.

Think I might be done with slams in general. Don't remember the last time I did well at a slam. Too much of a mug to make sensible picks at slams. Always get fucked over by my match selection. Have a talent at always choosing everything that goes wrong and ignoring everything that would have worked out.

Last nights CBB was so wild that I won huge in Cleveland State ML against Wright State. Texas covered but didn't win hard at Kentucky but the others games showed out strong for me.

Looking forward to the next couple days.

>>153100411
i took it

Just bet on about 75% of the matches today that will have BTTS

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People just keep betting denver

>>153102731
the question is Dobbins coming in for some snaps

is middle betting really as risky as it seems?

>>153101607
turns out it was a shit bet.

>>153103074
yes. 1 point is too thin and it costs too much to buy enough points that hitting the middle is likely.
but middles are my first target when boost arbing because the only risk is $1-2 opportunity cost vs a ML or yes/no prop. 1-17 in middle plays this year.

>>153096735
Because Bo Nix is a system babby and all of Denver's actual Pro Bowlers are still playing. Also Maye has a mediocre QBR in his first two playoff games (93.6)

>>153102731
its mostly casuals bias for plus money. late money will be on the patriots. if your waiting for the floor, it wont go past -3.5/-200.

Look at my post. There is. No. Way. The Bronkies are winning on Sunday.

>>153096735
maye is a fumble machine playing a top 5 defense. people are vastly overrating nix, he is not worth the 6-7 points the market is indicating. denver +5 or ml is the bet

>>153103591
don't underestimate the mile high home field advantage. that's a very loud stadium at 5200 feet

>>153103309
>Also Maye has a mediocre QBR in his first two playoff games (93.6)
eh.. that's good enough to win. i would definitely lean new england.

>>153099843
BAKA
Back to hockey
Sabres, Nashville and CBJ matches to be over goals

>>153103671
Remember you posted this when Maye takes his 4th sack in the first half

>>153103642
The thing is if you are going to bet broncos you might as well stagger some bets on winning the SB @$12 instead and cash most of them out. After beating the patriots the odds will make sense to do this

>>153103783
I guess if you keep repeating the same line you will eventually be right??

>>153103808
No reason to cash out. Keep the futures bet at +1100 and use it as hedge value for the owl

>>153103816
Yeah that’s a simpler option too depending on how much money you have to bet.

real talk why do niggas still use betting sites over polymarket

>>153104157
Prop bets have a ton of juice on poly. Moneylines are pretty good

I have to keep arguing with retards who blindly repeat "winning bettors get banned" because you guys keep getting caught arbing. Stop feeding this nonsense to potential bettors, and stop cheating.

For the uninitiated, you CAN win money betting. These people who get banned/limited are getting caught doing "arbitage betting" or buying picks from betting syndicates. Just be a man and bet straight.

>>153103671
That's fine. I'm just telling you why money is likely coming in on Denver. They have the better overall team and are playing at home. I believe the initial line was an overreaction to Nix getting nixed. Once you realize that Nix is a middle of the pack QB and Denver has the #2 defense in the league, you start to question how important Nix even is.

>>153105358
loser hands typed this post

>>153103591
Ok but what if my bronkies finner boutter?

>>153105358
It's not winning bettors get banned, it's people who take value odds and who show they will profit long term get banned. Having a few wins on the NFL won't get you banned because ultimately your wins are just luck equivalent to picking the correct colour on the roulette and you'll be a long term loser.

>>153105358
you get banned arbing, or for any reason, because the book keeps track of your closing line value to pick out the sharp bettors. arb bettors will consistently bet on sharp lines before the book has a change to readjust, which moves the odds in your favor, and now you appear to be a "sharp" bettor because you consistently front run the line movement. its not that you won, its that you "cheated" their system.

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If you were in this position, would you cash out for $2900, or let it ride for a potential $12K? I'm letting it ride, but have a feeling Fritz, De Minour, or Zverev will let me down
Possibly all 3

>>153108801
Mate that is some sweaty shit
I trust the men over a bet like Madison Keys
Let us know what you do with it

I've lost so much money this year betting ON the broncos that I'm not even fucking with this one. Enjoy it boys.

It's not really "banned" either it's account frozen and forced to go through a mountain of deliberately difficult beurocratic regulations and process to prove youre not a money launderer.

I was asked to provide documentation from my bank which they just don't provide, or go to the head office of the betting website in person on the other side of the world.

>>153105401
I don’t buy it. Betting the house on the Pats.

>>153108506
>set line to balance the book
>sharp bettors take value
>book is balanced
>ban the players for doing what you wanted
eventually they are going to end up just like vegas with no one left except rich retards willing to pay 20% vig to maintain their vip status.
>>153108506

>>153110390
> no one left except rich retards willing to pay 20% vig to maintain their vip status.
“There’s a sucker born every minute” - p.t. barnum