>>153210452
Do you think..she has...you know?

>>153210497
No I don’t. Has she what?

Seahawks ML is free money

>>153210513
Has she ever farted, cupped her hand near her rear end and then brought her hand toward her nose to smell it.

>>153210553
Ew dude wtf

Sinner lost but no one told me to bet in joker

>>153210497
obviously, the way she looks at him is a dead giveaway

>>153210558
I feel that way about gambling degeneracy

>>153187075
having a laugh

does anyone here make money with gambling?

>>153210977
only if online poker counts as gambling

>>153210558
she's hot so might smell nice. I'm no expert on the femalian specimen, but I suspect their asses, farts, and shit have a much better scent than that of their male counterpart.

Imagine her chasing you around the house farting at you until you fall over the bowl of eggs and she farts on your face

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Hit both picks last night. That Nuggets over was a sweat. Came down to 5 FTs that needed to be made at the end, and all 5 hit. Of course our swag Suns continue to be a money making machine. We're 3-2 this week now. Kind of an ass card tonight, but a got a few plays. Let's smash those bookies.
>Pelicans -2.5
Pels are a bad team, but they are the 5th best cover team at 27-21-1. They are 15-10-1 ATS at home (3-0 as home favs). Memphis is 6-9 as road dogs. Grizzlies are ravaged with injuries. It's ugly but I'm gonna hold my nose and lay the short spread with the Pels.
>Suns +4.5
Just keep riding the Suns. This team has made me so much money this year. This is the best ATS team in the league against the worst tonight.
>Clippers -6.5
Nuggets have been finding ways to pull games out of their asses without Jokic. But last night, only being able to put up 107 against a tanking Nets team, they really showed how strained they are. They've won their last 3 games by a combined total of 8 points. Clippers have covered 3 in a row and 8 of their last 10. I gotta fade the Nuggets here.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

>>153211252
Women don't fart, bro

>>153211475
then what's the point of having a gf

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>>153210929
it was a good price. no ragrets
>>153210977
i literally never lose

UFC bets?

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>>153210452
The GOAT

Will alcaraz kwab?

Lots of people on Polymarket going heavy on O2.5 in Wolfsburg game

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ufc bros, am i missing something or is this free money?

>>153211865
Previous thread has the guy with good write ups i will follow most of his. I am worried about a volk retirement too
>>153176015

>>153212877
If the fight finishes in round 3 you lose both

>>153213440
thanks. i had to start typing up my argument to see how dumb i am.

>>153213488
Happens to the best of us brother. I’ve fucked up trying to arb multiple times

nice arb opportunity here if you have b365 and 1x bet
1x bet: peyton watson under 13.5 points @ 3.05 * 9.8 (max they let you bet) = 29.89
bet365: peyton watson over 13.5 points @ 1.89 * 16.3 = 29.88

bet 26.10 to win 29.88 ($3.78). you can spam the $9.8 bet as many times as you want.

>>153213967
sorry 1.83 for the over, but the math is still right.

>>153210452
Big Horse Cock

>>153213967
even better one
1xbet jonas valanciunas under 10.5 points @ 3.09 * 9.6 (max they let you bet) = 29.66
bet365: jonas valanciunas over 10.5 points @ 2.02 * 14.69 = 29.67

bet 24.29 to win 29.67 ($5.38). you can spam the 9.6 bet as many times as you want again. really not sure why their lines are so far apart from each other.

>>153214115
the 365 line moved to 1.95 but its still arbable. 1.95 * 15.5 to win 29.67

bet 25.1 to win 29.67 ($4.57)

BIG weekend ahead.
Time to highlight every WINNER

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FCSB vs Csikszereda
1.32 FREE MONEY

Anchor bet (on every acca and parlay)

Leeds vs Arsenal @1.57
HOOAH?

Leeds is Arsenal's bitch

And ATLETICO at 1.65 has good odds.
Stellar odds quite
This captcha is killing me mate

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In LoL i recommend
G2 v los ratones
Home win
1.28

With kc blu it's 1.09

They also best vitality

But ratones is a lock for decent odds. Meme team vs best team

Cuckaricki v Red Star Belgrade
1.30
Notice when you don't even need to state the pick. Only provide the odds

Celtic Falkirk
1.30

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I, and not only myself, the model adhere to the same opinion:
City will rape Spurs a new un'
>1.73
DAAAAAAMN BOY
0-3 0-4 at half time
Tottenham are missing their best players
And yeah overs perhaps
But city should DESTROY them
Day+ of rest
Title race

Feel like Saar has a good matchup against lakers
Taking him to get 20 and 25+ pts

>AL HILAL
>AL AHLI

HOLY MOTHER OF OVERS

>over 3.5 @2.22
But even higher up to 7+ @14.0
Thank me later

So my little brother may become a professional athlete, can I still bet on him? We don't talk about it at all we usually just send each other tiktok videos so it's not like a have insider info

Farul v Dinamo on wed 04.02 will also have goals.
But 3+ @2.20 .
So 5+ @8.10 worth a k

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>>153214524
>Every time I search Al Hilal and Al Ahli on draftkings the app crashes
>Every other search works

Chelsea West Ham
is a fantastic matchup for Chelsea. It's 3-0 gap. West ham will be content if they get close to shooting a few times. Or so was last time at stamford bridge.
1.53 yes, please
And you should too. Come and get it

Detroit Red Wings
>Colorado Avalanche
away @1.66 (2-way)
Add it to the thanking letter hermano
NHL spesh

>>153210452
Buttcheeks :3

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Como Atalanta
>3+ @1.92
But goes up to 7+. @31
5-4 or sth ends this game

I believe PSG will win @Strasbourg. 1.63 truly believe. And they could score 4 goals here but also conceide 2. So even overs go be an option. Or just psg goals
PSG 2+
3+ total
Etc
Easy money
An away win with 2up payout
PSG 3+
PSG 4+
Or straight up away win @1.63 on the mega accumulator

>>153210452
Is it true what they say about horsegirls?

Parma Juventus
away win @1.47
Yeah juve looks much better. 1-4 imo in terms of chances. Prolly 1-2? But you have to take juve here, innit

>>153214797
That they are crazy as shit and will care about the horse more than you? Absolutely, if she had to kill you or the horse you better be saying your goodbyes

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Marseille @1.94
Paris FC is shite
Marseille and is Marseille Punished™ now with Benfica Mourinho CL Real Madrid last minute goalkepper header 2 man down.
I happen to know a few about "OM" and with the players Marseille has is a big gap. Playing away doesn't matter. 1.93 are astonishing odds.
1.92
Wait a second, they were 1.94 two minutes ago.
>The odds are falling
GO GO GO
UNLOAD
On my personal guarantee Marseille scores 6 in this game, but realistically 3. Without VAR, 4.

>>153214797
Horse girls are crazy cat ladies with family money. They’re all insane.

Hamburg Bayern
>Over 3.5
( For safety)
1.83

You can try the 1-6 at @8.80 with our 7+
Maybe bayern wakes up

Speaking of Benfica
Yeah, wins
@1.26
Good odds. Good fucking odds!

Kocaelispor v Fenerbahce @1.73
85%
Huge value just to point the elephant in the room

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National Bank Egypt v Al Ahly @1.65
Al ahly has a very good team again. Should be easy away win. cs 0:2

>>153210452
YJK

03.02 Hermannstadt v Rapid 2.30 ;)

05.02 FCSB @1.70 v Botosani

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06.02
Rapid @1.77 v Petrolul
Merry Christmas. But it's not real, is it? If it's real literally merry fk christmas
Odds fall but still 4-0

Salzburg @1.75 v Austria Vennia
Apologize for taking all the value. Sorry not sorry

United @1.70 v Tottenham

Wolves v Chelsea @1.72 ( HUGE VALUE ALERT. & ODDS FALL EXPECTED)

Games are next week ... for those still standing. Personally i'm operating a new deposit of 50 ron. I'm expecting 0 losses desu. It's why i wrote them...

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Here it is.

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>>153210452

>>153215818
Did you get paid today?

I dunno bro, betting on third world football is not a good sign

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>>153215818
Square bettors will do this and then complain about Vegas being rigged and demand the government outlaws sports betting ads.

>>153211449
They fucked me on the Nuggets game by bringing Jokic in at the last minute. That was a cheese dick move by Denver. Oh well, still hit the other 2.

>>153216595
Joker was listed as probable the whole way
Dummy what site you are using but you need to change it

OK jets/roar in the a league should be over goals ill 2FHG but the other 2 will slurp

>>153216733
Also everyone knows the first HK game will have plenty of goals kitchee gonna score 4 at least and give up one or two

>>153212890
I'm the UFC anon from last thread. To recap:

>Malkoun -148 vs Finney
Now -155. Value achieved

>Rowston -360 vs Brundage
Now -375. Value achieved

>Elekana vs Tafa over 1.5 rounds -130
-166 now. Value achieved.

>Tuivasa +240 vs Teixeira
+260 now. Value lost.

>BSD -310 vs Hooker
Another parlay piece, this line should be closer to -600 IMO. Hooker has nothing for BSD beyond a puncher's chance. Hooker will get taken down in the first 60 seconds and likely subbed in the first. Not a close fight.

>Fiziev vs Ruffy over 2.5 rounds -180
Same price as before.

>Lopes +130 vs Volk
+124 now. Value achieved.

>>153217039
Fucked up. BSD is now -355. Value achieved

>>153210890
Gambling makes you extremely aroused?

>>153217039
I actually see a lopes KO volk now desu
Volk isn’t going to go out wondering or clinging to a decision, he will get KO and be cool with it.
Thats the bet for me i just dunno which round. Prop 3/4 lopes wins by KO

>>153217209
RND 3/4 lopes by KO i mean

i remember being in the discord years ago and there being the Italian lad who only bet on some obscure japanese womens league, he still around?

>>153216666
He wasn't even listed as probable until around 4 pm. Stfu, dipshit.

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>>153219457

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>>153219849
>4 hours before
Are you retarded?

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PLEASE BE BRUTALLY HONEST, AM I FINNA HIT IT?

THE LIQUID MATCH IS IN, BAYER LEVERKUSEN TOO, NOW LEEDS NEED TO SCORE AND ARSENAL TO WIN AND BREMEN BTTS

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5-3 this week. Games start early today and it's a light card, so I'm gonna get right into it. Let's smash those bookies.
>Hornets +4.5
Hornets are on a 5 game win streak, and covered in 3 of them. Hornets are 13-7 ATS in their last 20, 7-3 as dogs in last 10. Spurs are 4-6-1 ATS as road favorites, and are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 matchups against Charlotte.
>Pacers ML
Pacers are in the quick revenge spot at home as they lost to the Hawks by 16 just a few days ago. Pacers are 12-7 ATS as home dogs. I'm taking them on the moneyline to get some plus odds.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

>>153220222
I can’t read this
no one can read this

>>153210553
Girls don't fart

>>153215818
overs are paying good in argentine league. It has a lot of slurpers but try these.
+1.5 on Independiente v Velez @1.6
+1.5 on Rosario Central v River. @1.5

>>153220337
He lost the bet on the first leg lmao

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>>153222188
Yes, and? Jelouse?

>>153217039
Can you please explain what the value achieved means? I am new to betting and am confused at the logic.
I am babby spoonfeed the baby

>>153214924
this
and if she comes from a horse family, her mom (and your potential step mother) is a crazy horse girl also

>>153222530
you cant just look at the line and think odds are odds. i understand that feeling, like what difference does it make if you bet on a guy/team as the 1.86 favorite or the 1.75 favorite if you thought they were going to win anyway.

lets say you bet 1 unit every time on those exact lines for 10 straight games and win every bet
(1*1.86) * 10 = 18.60
(1*1.75) * 10 = 17.50

you let the book have 1 unit for no reason, because odds arent odds. and you are only kidding yourself if you dont think you wont make 1000+ bets in your life and it will slowly add up. but in a situation where you have positive closing line value, like the anon you replied to has, its the reverse situation and you are now taking 1 extra unit from the book for nothing. massive hedgefunds, investment banks, and sportbooks dont remain long term profitable swinging for the fences every day. they use computers to scalp those 1 unit gains over and over.

>>153220161
Is a player who has been listed as out for a long time becomes questionable they are going to play.
Im not retarded because I bet on joker and activated him in my fantasy games because it was clear he would play a long way out.

>>153222695
My horse girls mom was an ex playmate

$25 Volk win, O3.5, ko/tko/dq parlay, +800
$100 BSD, Texeira, Lopes ML parlay, +268
$100 Salkilld ML, -1000
$100 Texeira ML, -310
$25 O2.5 fiz vs ruffy, -175
$25 Lopes ML, +120
$100 BSD ML, -375

gambling GOD

>>153223608
bsd + Salkilld + elekana is what i got as parlay
fiziev ml
Other than that all meme parlays like
bsd and under 1.5 + fiziev dec
bsd and under 1.5 + fiziev dec + volk/lopez anyone to get knocked out
Salkild sub or ko + elekana sub+ diego KO

>>153214232
>trusting fc shit b
>trusting them when they will apparently use some junior goalkeeper
lol I wouldn't put money on them

>>153223608
>taking a -1000 ML
Bookies LOVE him

>>153220222
I am proud that my countrymen dominate the /bet/ thread with the smartest bets

>>153224324
everyone should start with arbitage so they can learn how bad the value is outside about -250/+250

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with bigger books like 365 or fanduel they will hose you when betting on favorites. im not trying to convince you to use a different book, im just showing you that almost every single time you are betting on a favorite with a big book, you will get odds 1-2% worse than pinnacle or smaller "shady" books.

2/2 on dogs so far. UFChads eating good as usual

>>153202213

>>153222530
Simply put, it means you make a bet at a certain price which is locked in at the time of the wager, then after that point the odds get worse for your bet. You're getting a better price than much of the market. Also called Closing Line Value (CLV). High level sports bettors get CLV a lot because they're ahead of the market.

>>153227099
Winning your bet is all that matters. Who cares if you're getting better value than some random people?

>>153227972
winning 1 bet is not all that matters when you are going to be making hundreds of bets. im not even trying to shit talk you, because i know how addictive it is, but even a small difference in odds means longterm you would have to be win more often than those earlier bettors just to achieve the same profit level. over the course of 100 bets you are going to have to somehow make up 4-5+ bets for no extra reward, just to achieve the same p&l as those early bettors. you are going to be cooked so badly if you cant understand its not just about 1 bet.

reminder that there is no correlation between getting CLV and bets winning
It’s damn near 50/50

Told you tallison didn't belong in ufc

>>153228060
Yes winning your bets is all that matters, especially at high volume. Getting a "better number" doesn't matter if you lose.

Ruffy... :(

>>153228875
lets use the simple math from this post >>153222700
in 10 bets im already more than 1 unit ahead of you even though we bet on the same team to win every single time we are both 10-0. i didnt do anything other than bet earlier than you, but now you would have to win one extra 2.00 odds bet or two extra 1.50 odds bets to have made the same amount of money as me. and we don't even have to look at in terms of winning, in this scenario over 100 bets i could afford to lose 10 bets more than you and i would still be ahead of you. it's your money you do whatever the fuck you want with it.

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>>153223608
$25 O2.5 fiz vs ruffy, -175
Fuck sakes. Everything else is hitting.

>>153228154
You’re an absolute retard if you think CLV doesn’t matter. If I consistently get 2% better pricing than you on the same bets I’m going to be more profitable than you long term

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Sadness....

stuttgart freiburg o2.5 goals @1.62

>>153231675
Seems fair
I need these Hong Kong matches to have goals first tho

>>153231357
learn to read
CLV does not correlate to winning bets
Just because you got 2% better line doesn’t mean the bet has any better chance of winning

>>153231746
You're a fucking idiot who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room

djokovic vs alcaraz
4 sets @ 2.62 * 6.5 = 17.02
5 sets @ 3.4 * 5 = 17
bet $11.5 to win $17, ($5.50 profit) almost 50% profit as long as its not a 3 set match.

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United to win and BTTS to score
Lyon Lille BTTS
Xtreme Gaminvs v Yakults - Dota 2 - Yakults to win

Hopefully I lose so I can stop with this cancer once and for all

>>153214244
>Leeds is Arsenal's bitch
now you understand why you'll never write for a serious paper again

I guess it's ok since you like it in this dungeon
context: I got him a contract with tipzone. one 2000 word prediction per day at odds >1.60 , decent weekly payout with winning bonuses, one meal a day, plus rent paid by employer. and he writes "muttsiala". just so everybody knows he isn't making you a favor, the guy literally can't tip anywhere else.

Lyon @2 against Lille
You should bet on a draw as Lille is my team.

>>153231865
do you remember what the odds were for over 2.5 sets?

>>153235623
i mean over 3.5

>>153229756
>i didnt do anything other than bet earlier than you
There's no guarantee that the number is going to get worse after you bet it. It's all wishful thinking on your part. You're playing against the books, not joe public. Even if you get a better number than the hypothetical person in your head, you still have to win it. Stop trying to find shortcuts.

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We smashed both plays yesterday, bringing us to 7-3 this week. We have a stacked card today. Let's smash those bookies.
>Nets-Pistons under 215.5
These teams are a combined 53-40-1 to the under. Pistons have #4 defense in the league. Nets are #28 in pacing. Low total for a reason.
>Wizards +2.5
We have the game of the night here. It's ugly, but fade the Kings regardless. They are 19-31 ATS. Wiz have been playing better lately, covering in 5 of their last 7. Coming off the blowout loss to the Lakers, I like them to keep this close snd maybe even win outright.
>Knicks -4.5
Knicks are 17-8 ATS at home. Lakers are 6-7 ATS as road dogs. Lakers on their 3rd straight road game. I want to fade LA coming off their 31 point blowout of the Wizards.
>Suns ML
Just take the Suns. Nothing much else to say. They've been a money printer this season.
>Trailblazers +3.5
Cavs are the worst ATS team in the league. Blazers are 11-5 ATS as road dogs. Over 70% of the public is on Cavs.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

FUCK
I wanted Angers but was busy playing a map paiting game

>>153233685
No one can read your moon runes

>>153238056
It's funny to read the team name in moonrunes though

There's no way PL isn't scripted like the NBA is.
Fucking retarded City. I watched the way they gave up the 2 goals. City players lost every challenge for the ball on purpose in the midfield. These are elite millionaire footballers, not even Sunday league playes make those mistakes.

>>153236433
If two people takr the same 1000 bets but one person gets better odds on every one he will make more money. How are you struggling with this concept.

>>153210452
Why is riding so femdom coded?

How do you avoid getting restricted or limited for being a winning player?
I won a lot during January but I want to avoid to lose my current bookie because it's one of the few decent ones left in my country.

>>153225260
What side do you use to compare odds?
I only know oddsportal and bmbets.

>>153239489
Betting outside? odds are lower but they can't do shit about you winning
basically doing your pre-game safer bets there

Team spirit live in cs if you want a good bet

>>153239489
>current bookie
Name?

>>153240413
My main bookie with a German license is Bet365. I also use Asian bookies and exchanges via an agent.

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You can still hop in at 1.16

>>153239489
Stop playing or play slots and roulette a bit then switch but the ban is inevitable if you keep winning im banned from 4 bookies including shit365 they were the worst when it came to restrictions and everything else you could think of and on top their agents are massive whores that need a bullet put through their heads after getting violently raped for an entire week.

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1.08 lads
Soon it's gonna be unbetable

Ok, they closed the lines. I recommend if the odds come up again and you can get a 1.02... Take it !

>>153240930
How much did you bet?

>>153241273
20

>>153239361
You still have to win your bet. Who cares if you're making more money than the hypothetical person you made up in your head. How are you struggling with the concept?

>>153243741
he’s the type of retard who tries to justify his losing bets by saying they were good value

Anythng good for today?

>>153243741
You fell into the trap of thinking betting is a predicting the future game instead of a game of mathematical principles. You're essentially betting -111 on a coinflip and thinking it's okay because you predicted correctly once. But it's okay because you keep the gambling industry alive which is beneficial to me so thank you for your service.

>>153246558
youre not as smart as you think you are

>>153239424
theres a fairly strict code of content and you need to be pretty fit.

>>153239424
Big meaty thighs

>>153246945
nobody thinks they are smart for knowing how to add and multiply. its not our fault you are retarded.

Today's gem: league of legends G2 @1.48

>>153246558
> it's okay because you keep the gambling industry alive which is beneficial to me so thank you for your service.
…coming from the guy who bets on things that are never going to happen, simply because it was good value
getting positive odds on a coin flip landing heads doesn’t matter if the coin flip lands tails

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We went 3-2 yesterday, bringing us to 10-5 to end the week. We have a very light card, only 4 games tonight. But I like a couple of spots. Let's smash those bookies.
>Pacers +6.5
Believe it or not, Pacers are the better ATS team than the Rockets. Pacers are 16-10 ATS at home, 13-7 as home dogs. Pacers have covered in 3 of their last 4. Rockets are 10-12 as road favs and have only covered 4 of their last 10. Revenge spot at home as well.
>Grizzlies +7.5
We have a quick bounce-back/revenge game at home as Wolves just beat them a few days ago. Wolves have won 4 straight, Grizzlies have lost 6 straight. This sets up a good sell high/buy low spot. Grizzlies are a bad team, but these two teams have a very similar ATS record.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have

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Falcons

High iq parlay? Porto & Colorado Avalanche @1.90

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>>153247657
i am not the retarded american who doesnt understand shopping for odds. i am the retarded american who never loses because i only shop for odds.
i just dont like the smug brit who is too disciplined to have fun

>>153248397
might as well add the north carolina tar heels moneyline and make it + odds

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>>153210452

>>153239489
ive been severely limited on nba player props on stake even though whenever i arb on stake their side of the bet usually loses to the other leg. i was -1000 dollars to them in net withdrawals/deposits when they limited me. now i can only bet $2-$5 at most on nba/ncaab player props. and its only player props they limited me on, im not limited on moneylines/spreads/totals. i thought i would have been their favorite customer, but instead limited me faster than b365.

>>153248756
So you agree on Avalanche

>>153248820
Don't bet favorites in hockey or baseball. Take the Capitals and Islanders. Hit one of them and you profit.

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>>153248758

>3/3 on esports since yesterday
And i wait for a simpleton to take the money from my balance with VAR in a game that can cuck you by running out of time? It's time to switch to being a full time esports bettor already

>ncaab BostonU ml vs holy cross
>ncaab Nicholls state ml vs northwestern state
>ncaab Kansas +4 vs Texas tech
>ncaab Sacramento state ml vs Weber state

>>153248820
those 1.50 odds are usually the most dangerous. i feel like the avs should win, but the red wings arent that bad right now.
i like stars vs jets under 5.5 goals @ 1.95. game could be a bit of an audition for usa's starting goalie in milan. boths teams offenses fairly cool in the past 10 games.

>>153248879
>>153249128
Panthers @1.85 maybe

>>153249128
>those 1.50 odds are usually the most dangerous
I remember this guy calling on bet radio once and says "the safest odds are usually the most dangerous, and the most dangerous odds are usually the safest"

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FURIA for map 3
Starts in about 15 mins

bet365 new superboost
sam darnold 150+ passing yards
drake maye 150+ passing yards
kenneth walker 30+ rushing
rhamondre stevenson 30+ rushing
super boosted from 1.36 to 2.00. almost a 47% boost. feel like you almost have to throw down a cheeky $5 on it.

4/4

Going on a crusade on esports but still have to fly under the radar

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>>153248879
Do i take them both now?

So yeah this is gonna be my life now. Watch lol and cs all day

>/bet/
The house always wins, remember that sportsbooks exist only for you (goyim) to hand over money to them. By gambling you are enriching the very jews that seek to destroy you, your family and your way of life. Remember that.

>>153249868
this is not actually true. that's the true tragedy of sports betting, kalshi/polymarket and the stock market. you absolutely COULD profit long term in spite of the vig, if only you made the right decisions

>>153249887
My friend i have been in the mma betting scene for over 10 years at this point. I know very well the very very small % of long term bettors who actually do beat the house, the people in this thread are not them, i can assure you. They don't have the resources, intellect or knowledge to be one of them. Not all sports are profitable, MMA can be profitable but you have to be really fucking good. Now you need to make a decision, do you have a big enough bankroll to actually spend a considerable amount of time in taking this seriously. The bigger question is that is this really worth it? you are better off getting an education, a job and living your life instead of engaging in this degeneracy. That's what it is, it goes against the teachings of God and no money obtained through this way will ever truly bless your life. I've been through it all, i'm telling you from experience.

>>153249868
>you (goyim)
Things 4chan says
>>153249887
I knew it

>>153249868
when i was able to smash nba player prop bets on stake i was making $80-$100+ a day arbing on players i dont even know.

>>153249920
>it goes against the teachings of God
>people in this thread don't have the resources, intellect or knowledge

>>153249936
Are you the regular leaf poster? You started with 10€ made it 200 or what was it? But nevertheless you didn't make another deposit. Care to share how you did it, what you bet on and more specifically how do you stake?

When the kids are crying at an empty plate you can't tell them it was an ev+ move

Ok, tips i posted still to be played:
03.02
National Bank Egypt - Al Ahly @1.85
Odds now 1.85, don't know anything about this game and will probably have to wait for lineups but can't tell what players could be missing. Trezeguet, Ashour and Bencharki key players. The african cdm is also good

04.02
Hermannstadt v Rapid @2.22
Hold on fellas cause some tips sound better when i'm high.

Farul v Dinamo
I said 5+. Since then Farul had a 5+ (4-1 to craiova) . Should have predicted that one.

05.02
FCSB @1.80 v Botosani
We betting on FCSB or what? Botosani had a dream honey moon start to the campaign but severely dropped in form in the last 10. Btw tough weather in the country atm. Snow. FCSB are on a quest to win the remaining 7 games. Already won the first, 1-0 last night. Wasn't easy. I expect 3-1 here. But particularly for the matches with Botosani, at home* , you'd get ~1.37 , now it's 1.80. If you hate value don't bet obviously

06.02
Rapid 1.78 v Petrolul
Again, nice odds here

Salzburg 1.75 v Austria Vienna

07.02
Wolves v Chelsea 1.72
With the remontada morale from last game you can imagine how Chelsea plays in this one. Probably the better bet of this bunch.

>>153249964
i only make player prop bets. the lowest odds i usually take are 1.80ish. i dont like to touch the ml or spread. i know that anon is going to get angry to hear this, but there is almost no point to betting on a team like an hour before the game starts. you shouldnt ever interpret the line moving in your favor as a reinforcement of your prediction. you are now chasing. you do that just 5-10 times, and you will likely already have to make up at least 1 bet. you are willingly making it harder for yourself. nfl or college football player prop bets are easily the best bets to make but the season is so short. i also arb bet too, but that is sort of boring. i use the website picktheodds to find arbs. it costs $40/month but you can easily cover that arbing on the nba for a few days. i literally never watch the nba or college basketball, and the only nba players i can even name are like lebron or curry, but ive been arbing on nba/ncaab player props for pretty much every day of this season. sometimes a spread or total arb too, but they dont happen as often as the prop bets. it took about 3 months for stake to limit me, but the other books havent done anything. like the other anon said, once you start arbing you realize how easily and often 1.50ish odds lose. if you know how to make your own database that can pull api information from the books, you might be able to do it for cheaper. the secret math is that if you add the reciprocal of both fractions together and it is less than 1.00, you can arb the bet.
like team a = 2.20, team b = 1.90
(1/2.2) + (1/1.9) = 0.98, so you could arb that bet.
this is also useful to hedge your own bets. i sometimes just lock in a small profit rather than hoping a bet can see out the full result. sports are unpredictable and in many leagues they will feature players that can pull off some highlight reel game changing plays. xg based models will never be able to predict when one of them pulls off a massive play that fucks up your bet.

>>153249767
My bad. I meant Red Wings and Islanders.

UFC Vegas Bautista vs Oliveira Saturday 2/7

Back to the stupid Apex. They're selling tickets now so maybe it will be a better environment than usual. Trying to get in early to maximize value, done a good job of beating line movement overall the last couple weeks.

>Cachoeira +120 over Sygula
I think this is priced backwards. I'd have Cachoeira as a favorite. She's far, far more dangerous than Sygula. Like the plus money price here.

>Wiklacz +120 vs Gafurov
Former KSW champ Wiklacz being a dog to a striker seems crazy. Huge grappling disadvantage for Gafurov. Wiklacz will be overmatched on the feet, but this is a BSD-Hooker kind of ground mismatch IMO.

>Moura +300 vs Wang
Not high on Cong Wang. Pure value play here. I'd guess Moura is +250 by fight night.

>Said +105 vs Basharat
I don't believe in J Basharat. He got brutally heemed by Ricky Simon last year and might be out of UFC with another loss. Said has gas tank issues which is why he's not a big favorite. Skill for skill Said is the better fighter. Just gotta hope he doesn't fade hard after winning the first couple rounds.

>Oleksiejczuk -360 vs Barriault
This should be -1000 with no exaggeration. Oleksiejczuk will murder Barriault, who has no chin left and can only win via boring wrestlefuck. Even if Marc wins the first two rounds, Michal could easily KO him in the 3rd. Use this as a parlay piece until it gets over -400.

>Oliveira +160 vs Bautista
Not sold on Oliveira yet, but I like him at this price. This is a moments vs minutes type fight. Bautista is better suited to winning minutes, Vinicius is a flashy moment winner with great leg kicks and legit power. Expecting the public to side with the exciting fighter as the week progresses. Give me Vinicius at +160.

Will post more plays as MOV and totals come out.

>>153250420
how do you have time to find these?
i know the arb opps are there but i dont have the patience to search through every god damned player prop to find a 2% fucking edge once every 3 days

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>>153251684

People ask me about a safe bet. I say: Saint-Martin (2026 CONCACAF U-17 World Cup qualification). Tremendous team, the BEST. Very smart bet, you’re going to win big. Fake news says otherwise. Believe me, Saint-Martin is winning!

>>153210497
I know that you know that she knows that we know

>>153247796
Good job bro i won 2$

Crypto crashing and the circus nature of the planet means Jake Bobo scores on the superbowl at +862

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Cashed both our plays last night.
yesterday: 2-0
this month: 5-2
all-time: 12-5
No worrying about CLV. No corny arbing. Just using long term data and trends that have been reliable for decades. We have a solid card tonight. I have a few plays. Let's smash those bookies.
>Wizards +12.5
Knicks on the road are on auto fade. Knicks are 7-15 ATS on the road (4-11 as road favs). Wizards are covered 6 of their last 8. This just feels like too many points for a team that can't cover on the road.
>Nets +9.5
Lakers are in the 8th straight road game. They haven't been home since January 18th. Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 matchups against the Nets. The Nets have covered in 6 of their last 10. They've also covered in their last 3 home games.
>Celtics-Mavs under 223.5
These teams are a combined 58-40 to the under this season. Boston has gone under in their last 5 games and have the 2nd best defense in the league.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

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>>153255733
Brother, you have got to stop putting your faith in shitty teams just because there's possible value there. I hope mavs celtics comes through for you.

>>153259330
Value is the only thing that matters when sports betting. Better to make a hundred +EV bets that lose than flip a coin every time like the average bettor

>>153255733
Lots of trades going on I just did Milwalkiee ML which hit today but I think betting against teams heavily involved in trades usually works well for this time of year

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these asshole dont let me bet on shit anymore even though im down over 3000 dollars with them because when i try to arb with them their lines lose.
under 1.5 on stake @ 2.23
over 1.5 on bet 365 @ 2.20
knock yourself out there